讀後心得

The reciprocal tariffs announced by Trump will have a significant impact on Asian manufacturing. Economists predict that Asian central banks may further lower interest rates in response. Southeast Asian economies face high tax rates ranging from 32% to 49%, and supply chains may be disrupted. However, large manufacturers such as 鴻海 and 廣達 are believed to be able to adapt to the changes, as they have established production bases in Asia, Mexico, and the United States. Vietnam will be the biggest beneficiary, but it also faces a 46% tax rate challenge. Experts point out that these tariffs will affect the supply chains of electronic products and clothing, and may provide opportunities for India.

The "reciprocal tariffs" announced by U.S. President Trump will impact Asian manufacturing. Economists predict that central banks in Asian countries will ramp up interest rate cuts to counter these new tariffs. In particular, the Southeast Asian economies, which bear tax rates of 32% to 49%, will be the hardest hit, and the supply chain in the region may fall into chaos. However, analysts expect Foxconn and Quanta Computer to respond effectively. Reports indicate that Foxconn, the world's largest iPhone manufacturer, along with major Asian manufacturers like Quanta Computer, are capable of handling the impact of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs because, since Trump imposed punitive tariffs on mainland China during his first term in 2018, these manufacturers have already established factories in Southeast Asia, Mexico, and the U.S. and are expanding production.

Analysts point out that semiconductor production facilities require huge capital and years of construction time, whereas production lines for smartphones or servers are comparatively easier to establish and relocate. Therefore, Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" have a more significant impact on Southeast Asia, disrupting the "China+1" strategy, which positions Southeast Asia as the second export manufacturing base outside of China. Vietnam stands to benefit the most but now faces a 46% reciprocal tariff rate, while its reliance on the U.S. market is also higher than that of other Asian exporting countries. Analysis reports indicate, "These tariffs have severely impacted the 'Asian factory'."

Further analysis suggests that Trump's reciprocal tariffs may threaten clean technology manufacturing investment in Southeast Asia. In emerging Asian markets, solar production in Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, and Indonesia is particularly vulnerable, and the shifting of regional supply chains will also face more obstacles. In recent years, Southeast Asia has become a major conduit for Chinese goods exported to the U.S., with new investment from Chinese firms in Vietnam accounting for nearly one-third of the total. Research indicates that the effectiveness of China's indirect export strategy through the ASEAN countries may weaken, as reciprocal tariffs in countries like Vietnam and Thailand are even higher than those in China, which could lead to a shift in trade interactions, forcing China to redirect exports more directly to the North American market.

Electronic devices will face the greatest impact, as they accounted for about 30% of Vietnam's exports to the U.S. last year, primarily including smartphones, computers, and electrical equipment, while the supply chains for clothing and shoes are also affected. Observers believe this could present an opportunity for India, as its 27% reciprocal tariff rate is lower. However, whether India's electronics industry will truly reach a turning point remains to be seen, depending on the smooth progress of the U.S.-India bilateral trade agreement. Additionally, reports also indicate that Latin American countries such as Argentina and Brazil have relatively low tariff rates and are expected to benefit from this situation.