讀後心得

The Chief Global Economist of JPMorgan, Keisman, pointed out that if the United States continues to impose reciprocal tariffs, the risk of a global economic recession could rise from 40% to 60%. Multiple international financial institutions have issued warnings regarding this, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicting that global economic growth this year will be only 3.3%, below the historical average. The World Trade Organization predicts that such tariffs will lead to a 1% contraction in global merchandise trade, while the European Union estimates that tariffs will increase export costs by 81 billion euros, impacting people's livelihoods. Bank of America estimates that if retaliatory measures are taken, corporate operating income could decline by 32%, and even without retaliation, inflation will reduce income by 5%. However, strategists believe that there is still an opportunity for negotiation between both sides, which could become a favorable factor for the market.

J.P. Morgan's Chief Global Economist, Kismann, pointed out on the 3rd that if the U.S. President continues to impose relative tariffs, the risk of a global economic recession will rise from 40% to 60%. Retaliatory measures, a decline in business sentiment, and disruptions in the supply chain could all exacerbate the impact of these tax increases. In addition, the International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organization, the European Union, and other international financial institutions have issued warnings about this.

According to reports, the International Monetary Fund predicts that global economic growth will reach 3.3% this year, below the average growth rate of 3.7% from 2000 to 2019. The President stated that, against the backdrop of weak economic growth, tariffs pose a significant risk to global prospects and called for the U.S. and its trading partners to cooperate in a constructive manner to avoid further harmful actions to the global economy.

The Secretary-General of the World Trade Organization warned that if higher than expected tariffs are imposed, it could lead to an overall shrinkage of global merchandise trade volume by about 1%, a forecast that has been downgraded by nearly 4 percentage points. Expressing concern that the situation may deteriorate into a trade war, he urged member countries to respond responsibly.

The European Union assessed that the tariff measures would result in an increase in annual export costs of 81 billion euros. The President of the European Commission pointed out that tariffs have serious repercussions on exports, consumers, and the overall economy, stating that the impacts are immediate, with millions of citizens facing rising food prices, as well as increased costs for medicines and transportation. She made it clear that the EU hopes to initiate negotiations and insists that they will respond calmly, prudently, and unitedly, allowing the necessary time for discussions; if a fair agreement cannot be reached, they will not stand by idly.

On the other hand, according to estimates from Bank of America, if U.S. trading partners retaliate with equivalent tariffs, it could lead to an operating income decline of up to 32% for companies in the S&P 500 index. Even without retaliatory measures, inflation triggered solely by rising prices of imported goods could reduce income by 5%. However, strategists noted that unless the ultimate goal is to cause a global recession, the likelihood of negotiations is high and could serve as a positive catalyst for the market.