讀後心得

The impact of Trump's tariffs on the Taiwanese stock market may dip to 19,500 points, with AI and sports-related sectors facing selling pressure, while financial stocks become a safe haven. The tariffs exceeded expectations, disrupting the global supply chain, and corporate earnings may face downward revisions, with foreign investors continuing a bearish strategy. Taiwan's export-oriented economy is expected to have its GDP growth revised down to around 2%. The pressure on the New Taiwan Dollar exchange rate is increasing, and defensive stocks such as telecommunications and consumer electronics-related industries are likely to benefit, with heightened market volatility anticipated in the future.

Trump's tariff policy has had a significant impact on the Taiwanese stock market, potentially reaching a low of 19,500 points. Artificial intelligence and sports-related stocks are under pressure, while financial stocks have become a safe haven for funds. The reciprocal tariffs imposed by Trump have exceeded market expectations, affecting the global supply chain and potentially leading to downward revisions in corporate profits. Industry experts point out that tariffs and trade barriers are causing the U.S. dollar to strengthen, putting upward pressure on inflation in the United States. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in response, it will further suppress economic growth and stock market performance. In the short term, the Taiwanese stock market may dip to 19,500 points, while AI technology and sports sectors will face selling pressure, but telecommunications, financial, and domestic demand sectors will retain relative value, becoming safe havens for capital.

With the implementation of Trump's tariffs, U.S. technology stocks and sports-related stocks have suffered heavy losses, while basic consumer goods have held up relatively well. Market experts indicate that Taiwan, as an export-oriented economy, has seen foreign institutions lean bearish in their futures and spot operations, expecting that the Taiwanese stock market will continue to weaken after it opens on April 7. The market is closely monitoring the index support levels of the Taiwanese stock market. Experts indicate that reciprocal tariffs will severely impact global free trade and economic development, increasing the pressure on the Taiwanese dollar to depreciate, which could lead to both the stock and bond markets facing pressure.

Furthermore, experts predict that Taiwan's GDP growth will be revised down from 2.9% to about 2%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will rise from 1.6% to about 2.5%. This reflects significant pressure from economic growth and rigid inflation risks. Due to persistent inflation, the central bank finds it difficult to stabilize the economy through interest rate cuts, thus the exchange rate of the Taiwanese dollar against the U.S. dollar is expected to remain above 32 NT dollars for the long term and may even rise to 35 NT dollars.

Market analysis indicates that a bear market in the Taiwanese stock market may be approaching, with defensive stocks expected to become a safe haven. Analysts are optimistic about five types of defensive industries, including: telecommunications, networking, consumer goods, security, and niche industries, such as Chunghwa Telecom, Far EasTone, as well as FamilyMart and Pxmart among related industries.