讀後心得

US President Trump announced a 32% tariff on Taiwan, triggering deep concerns about the domestic economy. Hsu Wentai from the Academia Sinica's Institute of Economics called on the central bank via Facebook to allow the exchange rate to float freely and not overly rely on foreign exchange reserves to reduce the trade surplus. The central bank responded by stating that the exchange rate is generally determined by market supply and demand, but it will intervene to maintain market stability. Hsu Wentai emphasized that raising taxes is not the solution and questioned whether Taiwan can impose retaliatory tariffs. He believes that the key to the trade surplus lies in the central bank's exchange rate policy, which should proactively address economic shocks rather than act under compulsion. Experts point out that the exchange rate issue cannot be simplified, and arbitrary appreciation could trigger industry relocation, repeating past mistakes.

The Governor of the Central Bank, Yang Jinlong, recently responded to President Trump's announcement of imposing a 32% tariff on Taiwan, stating that this action exceeds the government's expectations and has raised concerns about a severe impact on the domestic economy. Researchers at the Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica expressed their views on social media under the title "What Should Taiwan Do," calling on the Central Bank to allow the exchange rate to fluctuate freely instead of continuously relying on foreign exchange reserves, as only by doing so can the trade surplus be genuinely reduced.

In response to the scholars' views, the Central Bank provided a brief reply, pointing out that the exchange rate of the New Taiwan Dollar should be determined by the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. However, if irregular or seasonal factors cause excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate that may impact economic and financial stability, the Central Bank will act within its responsibilities to maintain market order. Banking officials also stated that the exchange rate is a double-edged sword and cannot simply be viewed as a question of whether the Central Bank should let it float freely.

The scholars indicated that responding to the U.S. tariff policy is not an immediate priority for Taiwan. They emphasized that viewing tariff reduction as a solution is incorrect and believe that Taiwan cannot adopt Canada's strategy of retaliatory tariffs. The fundamental factors affecting Taiwan's trade surplus still lie within the policies of the Central Bank, and only by allowing the exchange rate to float freely without relying on foreign exchange reserves can it actually reduce the surplus.

Furthermore, they emphasized that rather than waiting to be forced to appreciate the New Taiwan Dollar in the short term, it is better to start addressing the issue now to extend the impact on the economy. They called for the Central Bank to confront the problem and inform the public of the academic perspective on the Central Bank’s actions.

Banking executives believe that demanding the Central Bank to let the New Taiwan Dollar appreciate in the current global situation might be unrealistic, while also stating that such actions could inevitably isolate the central bank. Senior executives of financial holding companies pointed out that even if an exchange rate adjustment is necessary, it should be negotiated like the past Plaza Accord. Additionally, they stressed that it is crucial to assess the impact on industries to avoid repeating the mistakes of 1987, which led to the rapid outsourcing of traditional industries and overall economic "deindustrialization." Randomly allowing the New Taiwan Dollar to appreciate is akin to unconditionally offering TSMC to Trump, which fundamentally lacks a reasonable strategy.