讀後心得

U.S. President Trump announced this week that he would impose punitive tariffs on countries with significant trade deficits. This policy has triggered panic in global markets, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. and Japanese stocks, with Taiwan's stock market also facing tax pressures of up to 32%. Experts predict that the Taiwan stock market will weaken in the short term, but a turning point is expected after the TSMC earnings call in mid-April. Li Fangguo pointed out that the market is poised to see 12 major positive factors, maintaining an optimistic outlook for the stock market performance in the second quarter, although it will still need to face the pressure brought by Trump's tariff policy in the short term. Analysts remind that if there is no relief on tariffs, market concerns will continue.

U.S. President Trump strongly announced this week a "reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing punitive tariffs on countries with significant trade deficits with the U.S. This move far exceeded market expectations, triggering panic in global markets. U.S. stock futures fell sharply, Japanese stocks plummeted by as much as 1,600 points, and the Taiwanese market was also affected, facing heavy taxes of up to 32%. Taiwan's futures plunged over 800 points in the night session, and it is anticipated that after the Qingming holiday, the Taiwanese stock market will encounter heavy selling pressure when it opens.

According to predictions by the chairman of Unified Securities Investment Consulting, the Taiwanese stock market is expected to continue weakening in the short term, but a turning point may emerge around mid-April, specifically before and after the TSMC earnings call. At that time, as negative factors dissipate, the market is expected to welcome a strong rebound, and the index may even have the opportunity to rise from the bottom. He stated that the tariff policy proposed by Trump represents "the biggest negative for April," and the Taiwanese stock market will need about two weeks to digest this wave of impact. However, he remains optimistic that mid-April will be a critical turning point for the market and advises investors to wait and see, planning their positions after TSMC's earnings call on April 17.

He pointed out that at that time, the market might welcome 12 major positive themes, and the Taiwanese stock market is expected to kick off a strong rebound in the second quarter:

• U.S. earnings season begins: Starting in mid-April, U.S. companies will successively announce their earnings reports. Although a general revision downwards of 5-6% is expected, a low base may result in 80% of companies outperforming expectations.
• Positive news from TSMC's earnings call: The Q1 earnings report is anticipated to be bright, and the outlook for Q2 remains optimistic, with sufficient orders for advanced processes at 3nm and 4nm.
• Seasonal statistical advantages: The probability of the S&P 500 index rising in the second quarter exceeds 80%, and the period from April to June is considered a favorable performance period for U.S. stocks.
• Presidential term cycle positives: Since 1984, the S&P index in the second quarter of the first year of a U.S. president's term has almost always risen.
• Federal Reserve tapering slows: In April, the taper amount is reduced from $25 billion to $5 billion, which will release market liquidity.
• June interest rate cut expectations priced in early: The market expects to respond early in May to the June interest rate cut, possibly prompting a new round of funds to flow in.
• High-dividend ETF rebalancing: High-dividend ETFs will undergo rebalancing in May and June, attracting institutional investors to position themselves in advance.
• NVIDIA CEO visits Taiwan: Jensen Huang will speak in Taiwan in May, and it is expected to clarify market concerns regarding AI.
• NVIDIA's strong earnings report: The earnings report on May 28 is expected to instill confidence and cut through the noise in the AI market.
• GB200 chip shipments: NVIDIA is expected to ship in large quantities in the second quarter, benefiting the Taiwanese supply chain accordingly.
• Coincidence of U.S.-China leaders’ birthdays increases likelihood of a Xi-Trump meeting: A signal of easing may be released in mid-June.
• Geopolitical risk mitigation: A ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine may be reached by May 9, reducing risks.

Although the outlook for the second quarter is optimistic, the market still faces short-term pressures. Analysts indicate that Trump's tariff measures have exceeded the market's worst-case scenarios, and the Taiwanese stock market may not rule out a retest of the lows from August 2023 in the short term, potentially even falling below the critical threshold of 19,000 points. He warned that if signs of tariff easing do not emerge, the market may continue to experience volatility.