讀後心得

U.S. President Trump announced this week a policy of "reciprocal tariffs," imposing punitive tariffs on countries with significant trade deficits with the U.S., leading to global market panic, with Taiwan's stock market facing heavy taxes of up to 32%. Experts predict that the Taiwanese stock market may continue to decline in the short term, but a turnaround may occur around mid-April during the TSMC shareholder meeting. Li Fangguo's analysis points out that while short-term pressures still exist, as the U.S. corporate earnings season approaches and positive news from TSMC emerges, the market is expected to rebound in the second quarter. Analysts warn that if tariffs do not ease, the market may continue to experience volatility.

The President of the United States has strongly announced a "reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing punitive tariffs on countries with significant trade deficits with the U.S. This move far exceeds market expectations, triggering panic in global markets. Not only did U.S. stock futures plummet sharply, but Japanese stocks also fell by as much as 1600 points, while Taiwan faces up to 32% heavy taxation. The Taiwan Futures Index saw a sharp decline of over 800 points in night trading, and it is expected that after the Qingming holiday, the Taiwan stock market will encounter significant pressure to correct downward.

The chairman of Unified Securities predicts that the Taiwan stock market will continue to remain weak in the short term, with a possible turning point around mid-April when the earnings calls take place. If the negative news has been digested by then, a strong rebound is expected, and the index could even recover. The chairman stated that this tariff measure is the largest negative factor for April, and the Taiwan stock market will need about two weeks to digest this shock. However, he holds an optimistic view on the market turnaround in mid-April and advises investors to hold off for now and await the earnings calls before making any moves.

Here are 12 major positive factors:

• U.S. earnings season kicks off: Starting in mid-April, U.S. companies will begin releasing earnings reports. Although a downgrade of 5-6% is expected, a low base period is likely to encourage 80% of companies to perform better than expected.
• Earnings call optimism: Bright forecasts for Q1 earnings reports and continued optimism for Q2 outlook, with a full load of orders for 3nm and 4nm advanced processing technology.
• Seasonal statistical advantages: The probability of the S&P 500 index rising in the second quarter exceeds 80%, with the period from April to June being favorable for U.S. stock performance.
• Presidential term cycle advantage: Since 1984, in the second quarter of the first year of a U.S. president's term, the S&P index has almost always risen.
• Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction slows down: In April, the amount of balance sheet reduction is cut from $25 billion to $5 billion, releasing liquidity.
• Early reflection of June rate cut expectations: The market is expected to react to the June rate cut in May, reigniting the capital market.
• High-yield ETF stock swapping: High-yield ETFs will conduct stock swapping in May and June, attracting investment trusts to position early.
• Executives visiting Taiwan: The CEO of NVIDIA is scheduled to give a speech in Taiwan in May, which could clarify market concerns regarding AI.
• Impressive NVIDIA earnings report: The earnings report expected to be released on May 28 is anticipated to boost confidence, dispelling AI noise.
• Chip shipments: NVIDIA is expected to significantly increase shipments in the second quarter, benefiting related supply chains.
• Coinciding birthdays of U.S. and Chinese leaders hinting at possible meetings: A softening signal may be released around mid-June.
• Geopolitical risks easing: A ceasefire agreement expected to be reached by May 9, reducing associated risks.

Despite the optimistic outlook for the second quarter, the market still faces short-term pressures. Analysts indicate that the recent tariff measures have exceeded the worst-case scenarios considered by the market, and the Taiwan stock market may retest the low point from August 2023 and could even fall below the 19,000-point mark. He cautions that if no signs of tariff relief are seen, the market could continue to experience volatility.