讀後心得

The new tariff measures announced by U.S. President Trump exceeded market expectations, imposing a 10% baseline tariff globally starting from the 5th, and a range of additional tariffs from 20% to 46% on specific countries as of the 9th. China faces the highest impact at 54%, while Taiwan also suffers from a high tax rate of 32%, particularly affecting products such as laptops, mobile phones, and servers. This adjustment may lead to significant fluctuations in financial markets and pose a long-term threat to the global economy. Analysis indicates that if Taiwanese manufacturers absorb the tariff costs themselves, their profits could decrease by over 30%, potentially affecting consumer demand. If the trade dispute continues to escalate, global trade volume could shrink by 5% to 7%. Experts recommend adopting defensive strategies and monitoring countries' retaliatory measures and policy adjustments. Various industries, such as semiconductors, telecommunications, electronics, and shipping, may face certain impacts, and the profit outlook for these industries will also be affected.

The latest tariff measures announced by the U.S. President exceeded market expectations, with a 10% baseline tariff imposed globally starting from the 5th, and additional tariffs ranging from 20% to 46% on specific countries starting on the 9th. This has made mainland China the most affected country, with a total tariff reaching 54%. Taiwan has also been impacted, especially on products like laptops, mobile phones, and servers exported to the U.S., which did not receive exemptions. This tariff adjustment has caused a severe shock to the financial markets and poses a long-term threat to the global economy.

In this round of tariffs, Taiwan has encountered a high tax rate of 32%. Analysis indicates that if Taiwanese manufacturers choose to absorb the tariff costs themselves, their earnings will be impacted by over 30% immediately; if they pass the costs onto consumers, then end demand might decrease, prolonging the impact on orders and earnings for over 30%. Furthermore, if the U.S. does not significantly narrow the scope of tariffs at the last moment, this trade dispute could escalate into a global trade war. Historical experience suggests that global trade volumes might shrink by 5% to 7%. Against this backdrop, investment advice is to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with market focus on whether countries will take retaliatory measures and potential adjustments in policies.

• Semi-conductor Industry: Although the U.S. has excluded semiconductor products, the tariff increase will raise the risk of economic recession and impact overall tech demand. Despite semiconductor inventories remaining at healthy levels, a global economic downturn may exacerbate the decline in year-on-year growth rates, posing challenges for some companies.
• Telecommunications Industry: With U.S. revenue accounting for 40% to 70%, Taiwanese manufacturers will face certain impacts. Past experience indicates that Taiwanese telecom manufacturers need to adjust prices with customers and may pass some costs onto consumers, but the possibility of capacity transfer is relatively low.
• Electronic Products: Products such as PCs, mobile phones, and servers will be significantly affected, especially brands like Apple, as their main market is in the U.S., and most production bases are located in China and India, facing high tariffs that could drive up prices and affect end demand.
• Apparel and Footwear Sector: The production-base diversification strategy previously promoted by brands has failed to effectively respond to the impacts of high tariffs. Currently, tariffs in the related regions have reached their highest levels, which will severely hit brands and retailers.
• Container Shipping Industry: High tariff measures will drive up the prices of goods and reduce consumption, subsequently impacting global trade volumes and freight demand. It is anticipated that after entering the peak shipping season in the second quarter, the rebound in freight rates may be constrained.

Overall, apart from Mexico, other production bases such as Vietnam and Taiwan are facing extremely high tariffs, which are expected to impact the consumer market and bring downward risks to the profit outlook of related industries.