讀後心得

The new tariff measures announced by U.S. President Trump exceeded market expectations, imposing a 10% tariff on a global scale starting from the 5th, and adding tariffs ranging from 20% to 46% on specific countries on the 9th, with a total tariff on mainland China reaching 54%. Taiwan is also affected, facing a high tax rate of 32%, with specific products such as laptops and smartphones not being exempt. This measure has impacted the financial markets and could trigger a global trade war and affect economic growth. Regarding the impact on various industries, sectors like semiconductors, telecommunications, and electronic products are all facing threats, and businesses need to adjust their strategies to cope with the high tax rates. Overall, aside from Mexico, high tax rates in other production bases such as Vietnam and Taiwan will severely impact the consumer market and the profit outlook for industries.

The new tariff policy recently announced by U.S. President Trump is more severe than market expectations, imposing a 10% baseline tariff on the global market starting from the 5th, and an additional tariff ranging from 20% to 46% on specific countries starting from the 9th. This has made mainland China the most affected target, with a total tariff reaching 54%. Taiwan is also impacted, particularly on products such as laptops, smartphones, and servers exported to the United States, which have not been exempted. This tariff adjustment has caused significant volatility in the financial markets and represents a long-term potential threat to the global economy.

Taiwan faces tax rates as high as 32% under these tariffs. Analysts point out that if Taiwanese manufacturers choose to absorb the tariff costs themselves, their earnings will be immediately impacted by over 30%; if they pass these costs onto consumers, it may lead to a decrease in end demand, further affecting orders and earnings with a continuous erosion of over 30%. Furthermore, if the U.S. does not significantly reduce the scope of tariffs at the last moment, this trade conflict could escalate into a global trade war. Based on historical experiences, global trade volumes could decline by 5% to 7%. In this context, investment advice recommends maintaining a wait-and-see approach, with market focus on whether countries will take retaliatory actions and whether Trump will adjust his policies.

In response to this situation, investment consultants recommend a defensive strategy and provide an analysis of eight major industries: In the semiconductor industry, although the U.S. has excluded semiconductor products, the tariff increase will still heighten the risk of economic recession, thus impacting overall tech demand. While semiconductor inventory remains at healthy levels, the global economic downturn may exacerbate the decrease in year-on-year growth rates, which will pose challenges for companies such as TSMC.

In the communications industry, since the revenue share from the U.S. is as high as 40% to 70%, Taiwanese manufacturers will face a certain level of impact. Past experiences indicate that Taiwanese communication manufacturers need to negotiate price adjustments with customers and may pass part of the costs onto consumers. Nevertheless, the possibility of capacity relocation remains low.

Electronics such as PCs, smartphones, and servers have also been significantly affected, especially brands like Apple, which primarily sell in the U.S. and have production bases mostly in China and India; thus, they will face high tariffs, potentially leading to price increases and affecting end demand. In the apparel and footwear sectors, the production base diversification strategy promoted by brands has failed to effectively mitigate the impact of high tariffs, and these regions are now facing the highest tariffs, which will bring significant blows to brands and retailers.

The container shipping industry will also be affected; Trump's high tariffs will raise product prices and reduce consumption, thereby impacting global trade volumes and freight demand. According to market expectations, the second quarter will enter the shipping peak season, and the rebound in shipping rates may also be suppressed. Overall, apart from Mexico, other production bases such as Vietnam and Taiwan are facing extremely high tariffs, which are expected to hit the consumer market and pose downside risks to the profit outlook of related industries.