讀後心得

Trump's tariff measures exceeded expectations, leading to a potential short-term dip in the Taiwan Stock Exchange to around 19,500 points. AI technology and sports-related sectors will face selling pressure, while financial stocks will become a safe haven for funds. Due to disruptions in the U.S. supply chain, corporate profits are likely to be downgraded, which could strengthen the dollar and increase inflationary pressure. The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, impacting economic and stock market performance. Taiwan's export-oriented economy is also facing depreciation pressure on the New Taiwan Dollar, with GDP growth expected to be revised down to around 2% this year, while CPI is forecasted to rise to 2.5%. Defensive stocks such as telecommunications, network communication, and security industries are expected to perform steadily during market instability.

The Trump tariffs are impacting Taiwanese stocks, which may dip to 19,500 points. AI and sports-related groups will face pressure, while financial stocks may become a safe haven. Trump's tariff measures exceeded market expectations, causing disruptions to global supply chains and potential downward revisions in corporate profits. Analysts indicate that tariffs and trade barriers are driving up the dollar, increasing inflationary pressure in the United States. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in response, it will suppress economic growth and stock market performance. In the short term, Taiwanese stocks may face a challenge at 19,500 points, with pressure on AI technology and sports groups, while telecommunications, financial, and domestic demand stocks may act as a refuge for capital.

As Trump's tariff policies are implemented, U.S. technology and sports stocks have been severely impacted, while essential consumer goods remain relatively stable. Market analysis indicates that Taiwan, as an export-oriented economy, shows a bearish sentiment from foreign investors in both futures and spot markets, expecting Taiwanese stocks to continue their weakness when the market opens on April 7. Investors need to pay attention to the support level of the Taiwanese stock index, as equivalent tariffs will affect global free trade and economic development, further increasing the pressure on the New Taiwan Dollar's depreciation, potentially putting pressure on both the stock and bond markets.

Foreign investors sold nearly NT$500 billion worth of Taiwanese stocks in March, putting technology stocks at risk of continued downgrades. In the next three months, the index's volatility may intensify. Taiwanese stocks are likely to fluctuate in the range of 19,500 to 21,900 points in the short term, representing a price-to-earnings ratio of 16-18 times or a price-to-book ratio of 2.08-2.33 times, while the historical average price-to-book ratio is 1.8 times, roughly around 17,000 points.

Regarding Taiwan's GDP and exchange rate trends, since semiconductor products are not subject to tariffs, the impact on GDP growth will be relatively mitigated. Assuming a 32% tariff on non-semiconductor products, Taiwan's GDP is predicted to be revised down from 2.9% to around 2% this year, while the CPI is expected to rise from 1.6% to about 2.5%, reflecting a significant long-term impact on GDP and ongoing inflation risk. Moreover, due to persistent inflation making it difficult for the central bank to stabilize the economy through interest rate cuts, it is expected that the exchange rate of the New Taiwan Dollar against the U.S. Dollar will remain consistently above NT$32, potentially reaching NT$35.

In the face of a potential bear market, defensive stocks are expected to become a safe haven for investors. Taishin Investment Consulting is optimistic about five types of defensive industries that are less related to consumer electronics, including telecommunications, manufacturers/network communications, commodities, security, and niche industries, such as Chunghwa Telecom, Far EasTone, FamilyMart, and pxmart among relevant sectors.