讀後心得

The tariff measures implemented by Trump exceeded market expectations, resulting in disruptions to the global supply chain and a downward revision of corporate profits. The Taiwan stock market may briefly dip to 19,500 points. The AI technology and sports sectors are facing selling pressure, while financial and domestic demand stocks have become a safe haven for funds. Taiwan, being an export-oriented economy, will experience pressure on the New Taiwan dollar due to the tariffs, and GDP is expected to be revised down to around 2%. In the face of these challenges, defensive stocks such as telecommunications and commodity sectors are likely to gain favor.

Trump's tariff measures have a significant impact on the Taiwan stock market, with the market expecting the index to potentially dip to the low of 19,500 points. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence and sports stocks are under pressure, while financial stocks are viewed as safe havens. As the tariff rates exceed market expectations, global supply chains are being hindered, and corporate profits may be subject to downward revisions. Analysts pointed out that the trade barriers from tariffs lead to a strong U.S. dollar, increasing inflationary pressures in the United States. If the Federal Reserve responds by raising interest rates, it could suppress economic growth and stock market performance. In the short term, the Taiwan stock market may test the 19,500 points, facing selling pressure on AI technology and sports-related stocks, while telecommunications, financial, and domestic demand stocks may become safe havens for capital.

Due to the impact of Trump's tariff policy, U.S. technology and sports stocks will face severe shock, while consumer spending on necessities is expected to perform relatively better. According to forecasts from Cathay Futures, as an export-oriented economy, foreign institutional operations in Taiwan are leaning towards the bearish side. It is anticipated that the Taiwan stock market will continue its weakness when it opens on April 7, with the AI technology and sports groups facing selling pressure, while telecommunications, financial, and domestic demand stocks may have the opportunity to become capital safe havens.

Market attention to the support for the Taiwan stock index is increasing. Cathay Futures mentioned that the implementation of parallel tariffs casts shadows over global free trade and economic development. As the depreciation pressure on the New Taiwan Dollar intensifies, both the stock market and bond market may experience dual pressure. In March, foreign institutions have significantly sold off nearly NT$500 billion in Taiwan stocks, and the valuation of technology stocks continues to decline. It is expected that in the next three months there could be greater index fluctuations, with the short-term range of the Taiwan stock market potentially being adjusted down to between 19,500 and 21,900 points, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 16 to 18 times and a price-to-book ratio of 2.08 to 2.33 times, while the historical average price-to-book ratio is 1.8 times, equivalent to 17,000 points.

Regarding Taiwan's overall GDP and currency exchange rate trends, Cathay Futures pointed out that the exemption of semiconductor products from the tariff significantly mitigates the impact on GDP growth. Assuming a 32% tariff is imposed on Taiwan's non-semiconductor products (excluding the 13% of GDP and 38.4% of total exports attributed to semiconductors), it is predicted that Taiwan's GDP will be revised down from 2.9% to about 2% this year, while CPI is projected to rise from 1.6% to about 2.5%, indicating significant long-term risks to GDP and inflation. Furthermore, persistent inflationary pressures make it difficult for the central bank to stabilize the economy through interest rate cuts. The forecast suggests that the exchange rate of the New Taiwan Dollar against the U.S. dollar will stabilize above 32, with peaks possibly reaching 35. If the Taiwan stock market enters a bear market, defensive stocks are expected to provide a safe haven. Taiwan New Investment Consulting is optimistic about five categories of defensive industries, including telecommunications, manufacturers/networking, commodities, security, and niche industries. Related companies such as Chunghwa Telecom, Far EasTone, FamilyMart, and Poya are expected to benefit from this.