讀後心得

On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Trump announced a 32% tariff on imports from Taiwan, shocking international markets and dealing a significant blow to Taiwan's economy, which relies heavily on foreign trade. Key industries such as machine tools, semiconductors, information and communication technology, and automobile parts were particularly affected. It is estimated that if the tariff is implemented, Taiwan's exports to the U.S. will decrease by 63%, and GDP will fall by approximately 3.8%. Although semiconductors are temporarily exempt, industry experts warn that more severe challenges may be faced in the future. Taiwanese companies need to seek new markets or transform to cope with the pressure, or they will risk losing orders and facing layoffs. The Minister of Economic Affairs stated that efforts will be made to extend the exemption, emphasizing cooperation with other countries to address this challenge.

Trump's tough policies have had a significant impact on Taiwan's machine tool, electronic machinery, information and communication technology, and automotive parts industries. On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Trump announced a 32% reciprocal tariff on goods imported from Taiwan as a core measure of his trade rebalancing policy. This decision shocked international markets and has had a profound impact on Taiwan, an economy that is highly dependent on foreign trade.

According to forecasts, if the tariffs are fully implemented, Taiwan's exports to the U.S. could decrease by 63%, leading to a decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) of approximately 3.8%. Currently, only semiconductor products are temporarily exempt, but other core industries such as machine tools, information and communication technology, and automotive parts have suffered severe blows. Experts have pointed out that, faced with such a situation, Taiwanese industries may face the choice of "half collapse" or "complete collapse."

Market participants have also expressed concerns about Trump's policies. An owner of a traditional industry stated that a 32% tariff is unbearable for all industries, and everyone is currently busy seeking countermeasures. Behind the Trump administration's 32% tariff on Taiwan lies a complex calculation logic. According to relevant data, after multiple considerations, Taiwan's effective tariff rate on the U.S. has reached as high as 64%. Trump halved this rate based on the "principle of reciprocity," arriving at 32%. However, this method of calculation has been questioned because Taiwan's nominal tax rate on the U.S. is actually much lower than 64%.

Analysis indicates that this situation may stem from the U.S. viewing Taiwan's public service fees such as water, electricity, and oil as hidden trade barriers, indirectly increasing costs. Additionally, political factors are a significant key influencing the policy. Trump has previously hinted that Taiwan should pay more for defense, and this tariff action may also be a form of pressure. The U.S. plans to impose a 10% basic tariff on all imported goods starting from April 5, while the additional 32% tariff specifically targeting Taiwan will take effect on April 9. This period is seen as the final negotiation window, but Trump's hardline stance seems to limit room for compromise.

Taiwan's economy is highly dependent on foreign trade, with the total trade amount expected to reach 869.39 billion USD in 2024, including a bilateral trade amount between Taiwan and the U.S. of 157.81 billion USD, making the U.S. Taiwan's second-largest export market. According to statistics, Taiwan's trade surplus with the U.S. reached 73.9 billion USD in 2023, and if the 32% tariff is fully enforced, it will deal a fatal blow to exports.

In specific industries, the machine tool industry will be the hardest hit. Taiwan's machine tool industry primarily supplies the U.S. market; however, a 32% tariff will significantly raise prices and weaken its competitive advantage. Some business operators have indicated that U.S. customers may turn to other tax-exempt regions such as Mexico or Canada. Small and medium-sized enterprises face particularly severe pressure from order loss and layoffs.

Though the semiconductor industry has been fortunate enough to receive an exemption, it also faces long-term concerns. Experts point out that if policies change in the future, Taiwan's mature processes may no longer be exempt, thereby affecting Taiwan's global technology supply chain.

Information and communication products cannot escape either; due to the impact of tariffs, the supply chain may be disrupted and costs will rise. Most Taiwanese industries operate on an OEM model, facing the harsh reality of thin profits. If businesses cannot avoid tariffs, they may encounter order loss and layoffs.

The automotive parts industry is likewise facing numerous difficulties; although the tariffs are below 32%, they will still affect price competitiveness. If the industry continues to be affected, it will have to consider transformation strategies, but achieving results in the short term is challenging.

In summary, Taiwan's economy faces comprehensive challenges, with the machine tool industry's survival crisis continuously emerging, while the semiconductor sector, although exempt, still has potential risks, and the competitiveness of information and communication technology and automotive parts is undermined by supply chain issues and rising costs. In the future, Taiwan must find breakthroughs in negotiations and market expansion; otherwise, its economic lifeline will fall into long-term difficulties.