讀後心得

On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Trump announced a 32% tariff on imports from Taiwan, shocking international markets and significantly impacting Taiwan's economy, which relies heavily on foreign trade. Bloomberg economists predict that if the tariff is implemented, Taiwan's exports to the U.S. may decrease by 63%, and GDP could decline by approximately 3.8%. This policy primarily affects key industries such as machinery, electronic equipment, information and communication products, and automotive parts, with many businesses facing a survival crisis. Although the semiconductor industry has been temporarily exempted, it still needs to deal with potential policy changes and supply chain risks. Industrial and economic experts warn that if the tariffs are not alleviated through negotiations, it could lead to unemployment, business bankruptcies, and increased pressure on foreign exchange reserves. The Taiwanese government must actively seek negotiation opportunities to relieve industry pressure; otherwise, the economy will fall into a prolonged crisis.

Trump's measures have comprehensively affected Taiwan’s tool machine, electronic machinery, information and communication technology, and automotive components industries.

U.S. President Trump announced on April 2, 2025, that a 32% reciprocal tariff will be imposed on goods imported from Taiwan. This policy is an important component of his trade rebalancing strategy. This move not only triggered turmoil in the international market but also dealt a severe blow to Taiwan's economy, which heavily relies on foreign trade.

For key industries such as tool machines, electronic machinery, semiconductors, information and communication technology, and automotive components, Bloomberg economists predict that if the tariffs are fully implemented, Taiwan's exports to the U.S. could decrease by 63%, potentially resulting in a GDP decline of about 3.8%. Currently, only semiconductors have received a temporary exemption. Experts state that Taiwan’s industries will face two extreme scenarios: either they will be forced to decline or undergo a complete restructuring.

Owners of traditional industries point out that the 32% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Taiwan is unbearable for any industry, and the sector is actively seeking countermeasures. They also urge the government to take this opportunity to re-evaluate the tariffs on imports from the U.S. and exempt goods taxes to facilitate negotiations.

Regarding the calculation method for the 32% tariff, the White House stated that the "effective tariff rate" for Taiwan's exported goods to the U.S. reaches 64% after accounting for tariff differences, value-added tax, and non-tariff barriers. Trump claims to have halved this rate based on the "principle of reciprocity," resulting in 32%. The director of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research criticized this calculation method as overly simplistic and crude, asserting that Taiwan's actual nominal tariffs on exports to the U.S. are far below 64%.

Experts believe that the U.S. may perceive long-term controlled prices for water and electricity as implicit trade barriers, which could increase business costs. In addition, the underlying political considerations cannot be ignored; this tariff may serve as a means of pressure, highlighting that the policy is not solely based on economic data but is also infused with geopolitical intentions.

The U.S. is expected to impose a baseline tariff of 10% on all imported goods starting April 5, while the additional 32% tariff specifically on Taiwan will take effect on April 9. This four-day buffer period may serve as the last chance for negotiations, but Trump's firm stance indicates that there is limited room for compromise.

Due to Taiwan's heavy reliance on foreign trade, the total trade volume in 2023 is equivalent to 99% of its GDP. According to the Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan's total trade with the U.S. is projected to reach $86.939 billion in 2024, making the U.S. Taiwan's second largest export market, with a trade surplus of $73.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 54.6%. Reports indicate that if the 32% tariff is fully implemented, Taiwan's exports to the U.S. will be sharply reduced, further impacting GDP.

In the tool machine industry, Taiwan's exports to the U.S. account for about 20%, totaling approximately $5 billion annually. Experts state that as tariffs rise, Taiwan's tool machines will lose competitive advantages over Japan and Germany, leading to a loss of customers.

For the semiconductor industry, although it has received a temporary exemption, the long-term uncertainty of the policy remains a concern, especially as Trump has already signaled that the exemption may be revoked in the future.

Information and communication products account for nearly 30% of exports to the U.S., and if tariffs continue to escalate, their competitiveness will face severe challenges.

Automotive components make up about 15% of Taiwan's exports to the U.S., and although the 25% tariff imposed by Trump on this sector is lower than 32%, it similarly poses a risk of reduced competitiveness.

The Minister of Economic Affairs stated that Taiwan will strive to extend the exemptions for semiconductors and key industries, and increase energy imports to balance the trade deficit. Experts suggest that Taiwan should consider collaborating with other countries to combat tariff pressures or expand markets in Southeast Asia seeking long-term solutions.

In summary, Trump’s imposition of a 32% tariff on Taiwan reflects the complex factors of trade deficits and political pressure, presenting a comprehensive challenge to Taiwan’s economy.