讀後心得

U.S. President Trump announced a reciprocal tariff policy, imposing punitive tariffs on countries with a significant trade deficit with the United States. The market reacted sharply, resulting in a significant decline in both the U.S. and Taiwan stock markets. Chairman of Unified Investment Consulting, Li Fangguo, predicts that the Taiwan stock market will continue to weaken in the short term, but a turnaround may occur after TSMC's investor conference in mid-April. He listed 12 positive factors, such as the U.S. earnings reporting season and TSMC's optimistic outlook, expecting a strong rebound in the second quarter. Despite the optimistic outlook, the short term will still face pressure from Trump's tariffs.

Recently, U.S. President Trump strongly introduced an "equivalent tariff" policy, imposing punitive tariffs on countries that have a significant trade deficit with the U.S. This move exceeded market expectations, triggering panic in the global market, leading to a decline in U.S. stock futures, a drop of 1,600 points in Japan's stock market at one point, and Taiwan's stock market facing a heavy tax of up to 32%, with the Taiwan Futures Index losing over 800 points in night trading. It is expected that after the Qingming holiday, the Taiwan stock market will face significant pressure for correction.

The chairman of a unified investment advisory firm predicts that the Taiwan stock market will continue to weaken in the short term, but a turning point may emerge around the mid-April TSMC earnings meeting, when negative factors should be digested, allowing the market to rebound strongly, with indices possibly rising from their lows.

Experts state that the tariff measures proposed by Trump represent "the biggest negative factor in April," and the Taiwan stock market will need about two weeks to digest this impact. However, they are optimistic that a key turning point will arrive in mid-April, suggesting that investors temporarily observe the market and wait to make arrangements after TSMC holds its earnings meeting on April 17.

Here are the 12 major positive factors listed by experts:

• The U.S. earnings season begins: Starting in mid-April, U.S. companies will release earnings reports. Although a general expectation for a 5-6% downward revision exists, low baselines may encourage 80% of companies to perform better than expected.
• Positive TSMC earnings report: Q1 earnings forecasts are good, and Q2 outlook remains optimistic, with ample orders for 3nm and 4nm advanced processes.
• Seasonal statistical advantages: The likelihood of the S&P 500 index rising in the second quarter exceeds 80%, with April to June being a good period for U.S. stocks.
• Presidential term cycle advantages: Since 1984, in the second quarter of the first year of a U.S. president's term, the S&P index has almost always risen.
• Fed's balance sheet reduction slows: The amount of balance sheet reduction in April decreases from $25 billion to $5 billion, releasing liquidity.
• Anticipation of rate cuts in June reflected early: The market expects a rate cut to be anticipated in May before June, reigniting the funding market.
• High-yield ETF stock swaps: High-yield ETFs will conduct stock swaps in May and June, attracting mutual funds to position themselves early.
• Jensen Huang's visit to Taiwan in May: NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang will come to Taiwan to speak again, possibly helping to alleviate market concerns about AI.
• NVIDIA's strong earnings performance: The earnings report on May 28 is expected to boost confidence and break the noise surrounding AI.
• GB200 chip shipments: NVIDIA will ship a large quantity in the second quarter, benefiting the Taiwanese supply chain simultaneously.
• Coincidence of U.S.-China leaders' birthdays with potential for a Xi-Trump meeting: Signals may be released around mid-June for easing relations.
• Geopolitical risk de-escalation: A ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine may be reached by May 9, which would alleviate risks.

Although experts hold an optimistic view of the outlook for the second quarter, the market still faces short-term pressure. Analysts point out that Trump's tariff measures have significantly exceeded the worst expectations of the market, and Taiwan's stock market may not rule out testing the lows from August 2023, even potentially falling below the 19,000-point mark. They warn that without signs of tariff relaxation, the market may continue to face fluctuations.