讀後心得

On April 5, 2025, after U.S. President Trump announced tariff measures, the stock market fell for several consecutive days, leaving traders feeling frustrated. This move plunged the U.S. stock market into a bear market, and China quickly retaliated. Xie Jinhe, the chairman of Caixin Media, pointed out that this tariff war is primarily a contest between the United States and China, and the impact on Taiwan's industries is limited. He urged Taiwan to clearly identify high-tariff industries and propose improvement plans. Moreover, he emphasized that Trump's measures target not only China but also affect other countries that rely on China. The future situation remains uncertain, and Taiwan must adjust its strategies to confront challenges.

On April 5, 2025, after U.S. President Trump announced the implementation of comprehensive tariff measures, the U.S. stock market fell sharply for the second consecutive day, and traders could not hide their frustration. The impact of the tariff measures shocked global stock markets and further triggered a bear market in U.S. stocks, while China also proposed retaliatory tariffs. The chairman of Finance Media stated that the main actors in this tariff war are the United States and China, while other countries are merely supporting characters, and in fact, are negotiable. However, Taiwan's industries find it difficult to enjoy the benefits of low tariffs. Recently, the Premier proposed an 88 billion subsidy plan with his cabinet team, but it seems to have not addressed the core issues. Perhaps Taiwan should clarify which industries face high tariff barriers from the United States and propose specific improvement measures. At the same time, it is necessary to formulate a procurement plan to the U.S. to balance the trade deficit and begin negotiations in the U.S.

There is a viewpoint that the main characters in this tariff war are still only two, China and the United States, while other countries could be used as bargaining chips at any time. After Trump imposed a 34% tariff on China, China immediately responded by announcing a similar 34% tariff on U.S. products, including well-known brands like APPLE and Nike, which hold a significant share in the Chinese market. At this point, China retaliated, and Trump's next response will become the focus of global attention.

China's economy since 1985 has grown from being the ninth largest globally with a mere $306.6 billion, to becoming the world's factory by 1990 due to Deng Xiaoping's reforms and opening-up policy. From 1974 to 1990, China achieved a surplus only in 5 years, while facing deficits in 12 years. However, after 1990, China's deficit only appeared in 1993, and after joining the WTO in 2001, its surplus first exceeded $100 billion by 2005, transforming it into the world's largest exporter, and it began to further challenge the influence of the United States in 2017. Trump's vigorous implementation of tariff policies is naturally aimed at China.

This round of increased tariffs has left almost no one unscathed; countries in Asia like Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, which are highly dependent on China, have not escaped. African nations like South Africa, Lesotho, Madagascar, and Botswana also face the burden of high taxes. Trump's strategy seems to simultaneously pursue a high-pressure policy against China and its partners. However, China is no longer the weak player of 1985, and its capacity for retaliation against the United States has significantly increased. Trump's tariff policy will undoubtedly affect his allies, and his optimistic prediction that "the surgery is complete, and the stock market will soar" may not align with reality.

Faced with China's strong pressure, Taiwan's industries find it difficult to enjoy the advantage of low tariffs, as they cannot escape the constraints of tariffs regardless of where they set up their factories. This storm continues to brew, and the future situation remains unclear.