讀後心得

U.S. President Trump announced the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs," which will impose the same tax rates on imported goods as the rates those countries charge on exports to the United States. Experts analyze that developing countries will be the most affected and may face risks of capital outflow, as evidenced by the recent sharp decline in the Indian stock market. For countries with significant trade surpluses, such as China and the European Union, the impact is particularly pronounced. However, for advanced countries, the extent of the impact is relatively small. Taiwan's information and communication products may also be affected due to capacity transfers, and overall economic and stock market pressures may influence the performance of the housing market. The specific impacts will require close monitoring of subsequent policy developments.

U.S. President Trump recently announced the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs," a policy that will impose the same tariff rates on imported goods as those countries charge on their exports to the U.S., dubbing it "Liberation Day." In response, Yuanta Financial Group's analysis points out that developing countries, which have long relied on high tariffs to support local industries, will be the most direct victims, facing the risk of capital outflow; the recent sharp drop in the Indian stock market is one indicator of market reaction.

Furthermore, countries with a large global trade surplus, such as China, the European Union, Japan, Canada, and India, will also be key targets of U.S. tariff policies. Yuanta Analysis believes that developing countries will still bear the greatest impact, as these nations typically support local industries through high tariffs. For these countries, it is advisable to avoid holding related assets, as these emerging markets may face challenges from capital outflow.

Yuanta points out that countries with a significant trade surplus with the U.S., including China, the European Union, Japan, Canada, and India, are most likely to be threatened by U.S. trade negotiations. Advanced countries have a lower tariff level and are relatively less affected, however, tariffs in China and India are significantly higher than those of the U.S., making them more susceptible to impact.

Taking transportation equipment, the largest category of U.S. imports, as an example, its main trading partners include Canada, Mexico, Japan, and South Korea, with Mexico being the most affected. Additionally, the second-largest imported product in the U.S. is machinery, with Mexico and China as the largest exporting countries; these two countries will be significantly impacted, but if they comply with the "United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement," they might temporarily avoid the effects.

Regarding the impact on Taiwanese industries, Yuanta mentions that Taiwan's information and communication terminal products, such as computers and servers, have already partially shifted production capacity to China as cross-strait relations gradually opened up, resulting in the highest export share to the U.S. With the onset of the U.S.-China trade war, Taiwanese businesses have shifted some of their production capacity to Mexico and Vietnam. However, despite the comprehensive tariff policies of the U.S., Taiwanese manufacturers related to computers still find it difficult to avoid harm.

In terms of semiconductors, Yuanta believes that the current direct impact of U.S. tariffs on semiconductors is limited, but attention should still be paid to the effects of weak U.S. consumption or the imposition of additional tariffs on Taiwan. According to WTO agreements, global semiconductor components enjoy duty-free treatment, and major semiconductor trading countries primarily serve as foundry bases, with final products being assembled into computers before being exported to Europe and America, thus the tariff impact from the U.S. on semiconductors or electronic components is relatively limited.

The Vice Manager of Yongqing Housing Research and Development Center also stated that Trump's reciprocal tariff policy will have an impact on the overall economy and stock market, which in turn will indirectly affect the housing market's performance. However, the specific effects still require continuous monitoring of subsequent policy trends for clearer understanding.