讀後心得

Trump announced the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs," which will impose the same tax rates on imported goods as those countries impose on exports to the United States. Experts point out that developing countries will be the most affected, facing risks of capital outflows, with the recent significant drop in the Indian stock market as an example. Trade surplus countries such as China, the European Union, Japan, and Canada will also be impacted. For Taiwan, with the shift of production capacity, exports to the United States may be adversely affected, but the impact of tariffs on semiconductors is relatively small. The overall economy and stock market will be affected, which will indirectly influence the housing market, but the specific impacts still need ongoing attention.

U.S. President Trump announced the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs," imposing the same tax rates on imported goods as the tax rates that country charges for exports to the U.S., referred to as "Liberation Day." According to the analysis by Yuanta Financial Group, developing countries, which have long relied on high tariffs to support local industries, will be the first to face the impact. These countries may face the risk of capital outflows, evidenced by the recent sharp decline in the Indian stock market as a reaction from the market.

Countries with significant global trade surpluses, such as China, the European Union, Japan, Canada, and India, will also be severely affected by U.S. tariff policies. Yuanta believes that the greatest impact will fall on developing countries, as these nations typically support local industries through higher tariffs. Therefore, under the influence of reciprocal tariffs, the assets of related countries should be held cautiously, and the risk of capital outflows from these emerging markets is concerning.

For countries with large trade surpluses, such as China, the EU, and India, they are more vulnerable to threats from U.S. trade negotiations. Meanwhile, developed countries have relatively lower tariff rates and thus experience smaller impacts, but since the average tariffs in China and India are higher than those in the U.S., they are more likely to face direct impacts.

Taking transportation equipment as an example, the primary trading partners of the U.S. include Canada, Mexico, Japan, and South Korea, with Mexico being the most significantly impacted. Additionally, the U.S.'s second-largest imported product is machinery, mainly sourced from Mexico and China, and these two countries have been notably affected. Products that comply with the "USMCA" can temporarily avoid the impact.

Regarding the Taiwanese industry, Yuanta pointed out that as cross-strait relations gradually open up, Taiwan's information and communication terminal products, such as computers and servers, have gradually shifted production to Mainland China, resulting in a higher export proportion to the U.S. However, with the outbreak of the U.S.-China trade war in 2018, Taiwanese businesses have redirected some production capacity to Mexico and Vietnam. Facing comprehensive tariffs from the U.S., the manufacturing of computer-related products is also unlikely to avoid harm.

Although the assessment on tariffs affecting semiconductors is minor, the impact from weak U.S. consumer demand or possible additional tariffs remains to be observed. Yuanta believes that according to WTO agreements, virtually all global semiconductor components are duty-free, and the main trading partner countries are usually contract manufacturing bases, with the final products exported to European and American countries; therefore, the impact of U.S. tariffs on semiconductors or electronic components is relatively small.

Additionally, the deputy manager of the Yongqing Housing Research Center analyzed that Trump's reciprocal tariff policy has impacted the overall economy and stock market, which will indirectly affect the performance of the housing market, but the specific impact needs to be closely monitored in relation to subsequent developments of the relevant policies.