讀後心得

The economist Roubini predicts that the stock market may experience a significant pullback before U.S. President Trump mitigates the impact on global trade. He believes that if Trump takes rational measures, tariffs could ultimately be cut in half, which would have a positive effect on the U.S. economy, forecasting an economic growth rate between 1-1.5%. However, he has a pessimistic outlook on recent economic, trade, and stock market conditions, asserting that market uncertainty will still lead to deeper pullbacks. Roubini also pointed out that Trump is currently more focused on the bond market and the U.S. dollar exchange rate rather than stock market performance. He holds an optimistic medium-term outlook for the U.S. economy, expecting that technological advances will enhance productivity, with future growth rates potentially reaching 4% to 6%.

Economist Nouriel Roubini, known as the "Doomsday Prophet," predicts that the U.S. stock market might experience a significant correction before President Trump eases his trade war on global trade. He forecasts that Trump may eventually halve the tariff rates and holds an optimistic view on the medium- to long-term outlook for the U.S. economy.

In an interview, Roubini stated, "If Trump is rational, he will lower tariffs." He is pessimistic about the prospects for the economy, trade, and the stock market, emphasizing that "in an environment filled with uncertainty, this correction might be deeper. Even if the U.S. starts negotiations with other countries in the coming weeks to ease market pressures, I believe the extent of the correction will still deepen until it reaches a bottom."

Roubini's "baseline scenario" is that Trump will eventually concede and halve the tariff rates, which would keep the U.S. economic growth rate between 1% and 1.5% this year. In this case, the Federal Reserve (Fed) would maintain the status quo. He noted, "Unless someone presents him with an 'extraordinary' condition, he will consider lowering tariffs. This is a reasonable stance because if he claims he will negotiate to lower tariffs, he will lose his bargaining chips."

Compared to the performance of the stock market, Roubini pointed out that Trump is more concerned with the bond market and the exchange rate of the dollar. He stated that Trump no longer pays as much attention to the stock market and will adhere to current policies for a while before making adjustments. "Trump is more concerned about the bond market and the dollar's exchange rate. Moreover, most stocks are held by a minority, so the correction in the stock market may not be too severe, but if bond yields fall, this would help his base of voters since many voters have burdens such as mortgages, student loans, and auto loans."

Roubini noted that the political costs for Trump are closely related to his current tariff plans, and therefore he may change his approach at the appropriate time. He said, "If Trump raises tariffs too high, it will lead to a recession this year, causing the Republican Party to lose in the midterm elections next year, affecting his 'Make America Great Again (MAGA)' plan. Therefore, if he still has some rationality, he must know to lower tariffs."

Regarding the medium-term outlook for the U.S. economy, Roubini is optimistic, predicting that technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) will enhance U.S. productivity and drive further economic growth. He forecasts, "By the end of the 2020s, the U.S. growth rate will rise to 4%, and even higher in the 2030s; we will increase from a growth rate of 2% to 4%, potentially reaching 6% by 2040. Even Trump cannot limit the pace of technological innovation."