讀後心得

U.S. President Trump announced the implementation of punitive tariffs on countries with trade deficits, causing a severe market reaction, with U.S. and Taiwanese stocks suffering heavy losses. Li Fang-guo, Chairman of Unified Investment Advisors, predicts that the Taiwanese stock market will continue to weaken but believes that a rebound may occur after TSMC's earnings call in mid-April, suggesting that investors be patient and wait. Li Fang-guo listed 12 positive factors and expects that the market will see a turnaround in the second quarter. Despite the optimistic outlook, analyst Weng Wei-jie warned of potential short-term pullback risks.

US President Trump recently announced a strong "reciprocal tariffs" policy, imposing punitive tariffs on countries hoping to improve their trade deficits with the US. This move exceeded market expectations and triggered global market panic. Not only did US stock futures plunge significantly, but Japanese stocks also saw a drop of 1,600 points at one point, and Taiwan is facing heavy taxes of up to 32%. The Taiwan Futures' night trading plummeted over 800 points, and it is anticipated that the Taiwanese stock market will face severe correction pressures after the Tomb Sweeping holiday.

The chairman of Unified Investment Consulting pointed out that the Taiwanese stock market will continue to weaken in the short term, but a turning point is expected to appear around mid-April, around the time of TSMC's earnings call, when the market may see a rebound. He stated that Trump's tariff policy will become "the biggest negative factor in April," with the Taiwanese stock market needing about two weeks to digest this wave of impact. However, there may be a key market turnaround in mid-April, so he advises investors to watch and wait until TSMC's earnings call on April 17 before making investment plans.

According to his analysis, the market is expected to see 12 positive factors:

• Start of US earnings season: From mid-April, US companies will begin to announce their earnings reports. Although a 5-6% downward revision is expected, low base levels may encourage 80% of companies to perform better than expected.
• Optimistic outlook from TSMC's earnings call: First-quarter earnings predictions are positive, and the outlook for the second quarter remains optimistic, especially with ample orders for the 3nm and 4nm advanced processes.
• Statistical seasonal advantage: The probability of the S&P 500 Index rising in the second quarter exceeds 80%.
• Positive factors from the presidential term cycle: Since 1984, the S&P Index has almost guaranteed an increase in the second quarter of the first year of a US president's term.
• Federal Reserve's tapering slowdown: The tapering amount in April will decrease from $25 billion to $5 billion, further releasing liquidity.
• Anticipation of early rate cuts in June: The market expects to reflect the situation of rate cuts in June in May, reigniting the funds market.
• High-yield ETF stock exchange topics: High-yield ETFs in May and June will undergo stock exchanges, attracting investment trusts to position ahead of time.
• NVIDIA's CEO will visit Taiwan in May, possibly clarifying market concerns about AI.
• NVIDIA's earnings report on May 28 may boost confidence and eliminate market noise.
• NVIDIA may achieve large-scale shipping in the second quarter, and Taiwanese supply chains are expected to benefit simultaneously.
• With the birthdays of Chinese and US leaders being close, it indicates a possibility of a meeting.
• Geopolitical risks have eased, with a potential ceasefire agreement emerging between Russia and Ukraine.

Despite maintaining an optimistic outlook for the second quarter, the market still faces short-term pressures. Analysts pointed out that this round of tariff policies from Trump exceeded the market's worst expectations, which could lead the Taiwanese stock market to retest the low from August 2023 and possibly breach the 19,000 mark. He warned that unless there are signs of tariff relaxations, the market may continue to experience fluctuations.