讀後心得

Trump's tariff increases exceeded expectations, impacting the global supply chain, and the Taiwanese stock market may temporarily dip to 19,500 points. AI and sports stocks are under selling pressure, while financial and telecom stocks have become safe havens. It is anticipated that Taiwan's GDP growth will be revised downwards, inflationary pressures will increase, and the New Taiwan Dollar may stay above 32 NT dollars, potentially reaching 35 NT dollars. Defensive stocks like 中華電 (Chunghwa Telecom) and 台新投顧 (Taishin Investment Advisory) are optimistic about the related industries.

Trump's tariff measures have had a significant impact on the Taiwan stock market, with short-term forecasts potentially testing the 19,500 points. AI and sports stocks are under pressure, while financial stocks have become a safe haven for funds. According to reports, Trump's retaliatory tariffs exceeded market expectations, causing global supply chains to be disrupted and corporate profits to potentially be revised downwards. Analysts pointed out that tariff trade barriers have strengthened the US dollar, increasing inflationary pressure in the United States. If the Federal Reserve further raises interest rates, it will suppress economic growth and stock market performance. The short-term trend of the Taiwan stock market is concerning, as AI technology and sports stocks may face selling pressure, while telecom, financial, and domestic demand stocks may become safe havens for funds.

Trump's tariff policies have impacted US technology and sports stocks; in contrast, basic consumer stocks appear to be more resilient. Market experts analyze that Taiwan, being an export-oriented economy, sees foreign investors adopting a pessimistic approach to futures and spot markets. It is expected that the Taiwan stock market will continue its weakness when it opens on April 7, with AI technology and sports stocks facing selling pressure, while telecom, financial, and domestic demand stocks may attract funds.

The market focus is on the support level of the Taiwan stock index. Experts indicate that the retaliatory tariffs will harm global free trade and economic development, increasing the depreciation pressure on the New Taiwan dollar. It is anticipated that both the stock market and bond market may face pressure. Foreign investors have significantly sold off nearly NT$500 billion in Taiwan stocks in March, and technology stocks face further downgrade risks. Over the next three months, index fluctuations may intensify, with the Taiwan stock market potentially retreating to between 19,500 to 21,900 points, which implies a price-earnings ratio of 16-18 times or a price-to-book ratio of 2.08-2.33 times, with the historical average price-to-book ratio being 1.8 times, equivalent to around 17,000 points.

Regarding Taiwan's GDP and exchange rate trends, experts stated that since semiconductor products are not affected by tariffs, this will significantly reduce the impact on GDP growth. Assuming a 32% tariff is imposed on Taiwan's non-semiconductor products, it is expected that Taiwan's GDP will be revised down from 2.9% to about 2% this year, while the CPI is expected to rebound from 1.6% to 2.5%. These changes indicate a very evident long-term impact on GDP and inflation risks.

Due to persistent inflation, the central bank is unable to stabilize the economy through interest rate cuts, and it is anticipated that the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar against the US dollar will hover above 32, with peaks potentially reaching 35. In the face of a potentially looming bear market in Taiwan stocks, defensive stocks will help mitigate market risks. Analysts are optimistic about five types of defensive industries, including telecom, manufacturers/network communications, commodities, security, and niche industries, such as Chunghwa Telecom, FarEasTone, FamilyMart, and PXMart.