讀後心得

After Trump announced equivalent tariffs from various countries, it attracted global attention. Goldman Sachs downgraded the rating of Taiwan stocks to "Neutral" and adjusted its priority stock list, adding MediaTek and removing Delta Electronics. Goldman stated that Taiwan's 32% tariffs will affect exports and the economy, particularly the cost differences with competitors such as Japan and South Korea. Against the backdrop of a slowing U.S. economy, funds may flow back to Asia. Goldman also lowered the target prices for 11 AI server stocks, with Quanta experiencing the largest decrease. Regarding MediaTek, analysts are optimistic about its growth potential in the AI transformation and predict that revenue and profits will grow steadily from 2024 to 2027, giving it a "Buy" rating and a target price of 1,780 TWD.

After U.S. President Donald Trump announced equal tariff rates among countries, it sparked widespread attention globally. The foreign investment institution Goldman Sachs, which predicts the dynamics of Taiwan's stock market in 2024, has taken the lead in downgrading Taiwan's stock market rating to "neutral" and has readjusted its priority purchase list, with MediaTek (2454) being newly added while Delta Electronics (2308) has been removed. The main reason for Goldman Sachs' downgrade of Taiwan's stock rating is the implementation of a 32% equal tariff in Taiwan, which adversely affects exports and economic performance, especially since this rate is higher than that of technological competitors like Japan and South Korea, thereby increasing costs and intensifying competition in the semiconductor, memory, and panel industries.

Amid the current tariff risks, Goldman Sachs suggests clarifying recent market trading conditions and the extent of the potential impact of new tariffs, while also understanding the latest reactions from U.S. trading partners. Additionally, many investors are curious whether the slowing growth of the U.S. economy and declining stock market momentum will prompt capital to flow back to Asia or more broadly to emerging markets. Goldman Sachs’ strategy team points out that the best conditions for capital to shift to Asia include: widening economic growth gaps between Asia or emerging markets and the U.S.; a weakening dollar; and the U.S. stock market entering a consolidation or oscillation pattern.

In fact, even before the announcement of the tariff rates, Goldman Sachs had already comprehensively lowered the target prices for 11 Taiwan-based AI server stocks. Whether there will be a bearish outlook on the upstream technology industry has become a focal point in the market. These 11 stocks include Quanta Computer, Hon Hai, Wistron, QCT, Twinhead, Delta Electronics, Taiden, InnoLux, Jinxiang, Jhaorong, and MediaTek, with target price adjustments ranging from 5% to 21%. Among them, Quanta Computer was the most affected, with its rating downgraded from "buy" to "neutral," and its target price significantly cut by 21% to NT$293.

Goldman Sachs Asia Pacific's priority purchase list has also been adjusted, removing Delta Electronics and adding MediaTek. Goldman Sachs' technology industry analysts pointed out that MediaTek's growth momentum in its AI transformation strategy mainly stems from three aspects: steady market share increase; a new wave of upgrades in smart phones driven by generative AI; and the expansion potential of enterprise-grade ASICs and the automotive market. Analysts believe that MediaTek will actively transform from a traditional smart phone application processor supplier into one of the key players in the AI field, planning to use edge AI devices as an entry point to continuously expand into emerging areas such as AI enterprise ASICs and smart vehicle solutions.

Looking ahead, analysts expect MediaTek's revenue and profits to grow steadily at compound annual growth rates of 16% and 17% from 2024 to 2027, and its operating profit margin is also expected to rise from 19% in 2025 to 22% in 2027, thus rating it as "buy" with a target price of NT$1,780, indicating promising prospects ahead.