讀後心得

After U.S. President Trump announced new tariffs, it drew global attention. Goldman Sachs downgraded the rating of Taiwanese stocks to "Neutral" and adjusted its priority buy list, including MediaTek and removing Delta Electronics. The reason for the downgrade is that Taiwan's 32% reciprocal tariff will affect exports and economic performance, especially with higher costs in competition. Goldman Sachs also suggested that the market clarify tariff risks and the reactions of U.S. trade partners. Investors are concerned whether a weakening U.S. economy will drive funds back to Asia; Goldman Sachs believes it’s necessary to observe economic growth disparities, the trends of the U.S. dollar, and the performance of U.S. stocks. Additionally, Goldman Sachs has lowered the target prices of 11 Taiwanese AI server stocks, with Quanta Computer being the most affected, its rating downgraded to "Neutral," and target price significantly revised. Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that MediaTek has growth potential in the AI field, expecting robust growth in future revenue and profits, assigning a "Buy" rating with a target price of 1,780 TWD.

After U.S. President Trump announced the reciprocal tariff rates for various countries, there was a strong global reaction. Goldman Sachs, the foreign investment firm that provides the most accurate forecasts for Taiwan's stock market trends in 2024, has downgraded the rating for Taiwan's stock market to "Neutral" for the first time and made significant adjustments to its priority buy list, recently adding MediaTek and removing Delta Electronics. Goldman Sachs downgraded the rating for Taiwan's stock market from "Outperform" to "Neutral," primarily due to Taiwan implementing a 32% reciprocal tariff, which will negatively impact exports and economic growth. Particularly, since this tariff rate is higher than those of technological competitors like Japan and South Korea, it will lead to increased costs and intensify competition in industries such as semiconductors, memory, and panels. Additionally, Goldman Sachs recently suggested clarifying market trading conditions during this period, as well as the impact of potential new tariffs and the latest responses from U.S. trading partners.

• Many investors are concerned whether a slowdown in U.S. economic growth and weakened stock market momentum will prompt capital to flow back into Asian markets or broader emerging markets. Goldman Sachs' strategy team believes that the best conditions for capital to shift to Asia include:
• The widening economic growth gap between Asia or emerging markets and the U.S.;
• A weakening U.S. dollar;
• The U.S. stock market entering a consolidation or range-bound pattern.

In fact, before the announcement of the tariff rates, Goldman Sachs had already comprehensively lowered the target prices for 11 Taiwan-based AI server stocks. Whether it will further downgrade the outlook for the upstream technology industry has become the focus of market attention. These 11 stocks include Quanta, Foxconn, Wistron, Chi Mei, Shun Hau, Delta Electronics, Taiyang, TSMC, King Yuan, Jha Zhe, and Lian Mao, with target price adjustments ranging from 5% to 21%. Among them, Quanta's downgrade is the most significant, with its rating lowered from "Buy" to "Neutral" and the target price drastically cut by 21% to 293 TWD.

Goldman Sachs' priority buy list for the Asia-Pacific has also been adjusted, removing Delta Electronics and including MediaTek instead. Goldman Sachs' technology industry analysts stated that MediaTek's growth momentum in its AI transformation strategy primarily comes from three areas: continuous market share growth; generative AI driving a new upgrade cycle for smartphones; and the expanding potential in enterprise ASICs and automotive markets. Analysis indicates that MediaTek is actively transforming from a traditional smartphone application processor supplier into a key player in the AI field, planning to start with edge AI devices and gradually expand into emerging application areas such as AI enterprise ASICs and smart vehicle solutions.

Looking ahead, it is anticipated that MediaTek's revenue and profits will grow steadily at compound annual growth rates of 16% and 17%, respectively, from 2024 to 2027; the operating profit margin is also expected to rise from 19% in 2025 to 22% in 2027. Therefore, Goldman Sachs has given MediaTek a "Buy" rating, with a target price set at 1,780 TWD, making the future outlook promising.