讀後心得

Trump announced reciprocal tariff rates, leading to turbulence in global capital markets. The Taiwanese stock market temporarily sought refuge due to the Qingming holiday, but it is expected that there may be a gap down on Monday. Analysts estimate that the Taiwanese stock market could break below the previous low of 20,695 points, and even test the 20,000 point mark, with the worst-case scenario possibly dropping to 19,662 points. In the short term, the support zone for the Taiwanese stock market is between 18,600 and 19,500 points, while the reasonable valuation range is between 18,600 and 23,560 points. Investors are advised to reduce their equity holdings and focus on high-dividend and defensive stocks. Corporate profits are expected to be revised down by 5% to 8%, with semiconductors remaining a focal point; the outcomes of subsequent negotiations will influence market trends. Investors should be patient and avoid chasing short-term rebounds.

Trump announced the equivalent tariff rates, causing a significant impact on global capital markets. The Taiwanese stock market temporarily avoided the shock due to the Qingming Festival holiday, but it is expected to experience a gap down next Monday. Analysts predict that this tariff issue has reached a "systemic risk level," and the Taiwanese stock market's decline may not only break the previous low of 20,695 points but could also test and fall below 20,000 points. If the situation worsens, there is a possibility of seeking support at the low point of 19,662 points from August 6 of last year.

After Trump announced the equivalent tariff rates for various countries, global stock markets generally fell. Analysts say that the short-term support range for the Taiwanese stock market is between 18,600 points and 19,500 points, with a reasonably assessed price-to-earnings ratio range of 15 to 19 times, corresponding to an index range of 18,600 to 23,560 points. Considering there is still room for further negotiations, investors are advised to prioritize risk control, reduce stock positions, and consider allocating to high-dividend, non-export-oriented, and tariff-resistant defensive sectors.

According to analysts' estimates, under the actual impact of the supply chain at various stages, the profit downgrades for electronic and traditional industries are expected to be between 5% and 30%. Overall, the estimated profit for Taiwanese companies is expected to be revised downwards by 5% to 8%. For example, for the Taiwan 50 constituent stocks, the original forecast of a 15% growth in corporate profits in 2025 will be adjusted down to single digits.

Analysts pointed out that Taiwan's equivalent tariffs are higher than those of Japan and South Korea, and the impact of tariffs will be more evident in the short term. The chance of stopping the decline will depend on whether countries take measures to seek tariff reductions, as Trump hopes to lure manufacturing back to invest in the United States. The way for the Taiwanese stock market to relieve pressure is for the government to quickly integrate companies willing to invest in the United States and negotiate with the U.S. side to seek tariff reductions.

In summary, investment advisors believe that due to the unexpected high tariff rates, it is necessary to continue monitoring the results of subsequent negotiations, especially in the semiconductor sector. As for the stock market, since it is closed for the Qingming Festival, it will face a corrective decline next Monday, but it is not necessary to be overly pessimistic. However, investors should not rush into bottom-fishing operations in the short term but should wait to see if there are negotiation results announced before the 9th to observe whether the negative news has already been digested.