讀後心得

After Trump announced the reciprocal tariffs, global stock markets plummeted. The Taiwanese stock market temporarily avoided a drop due to the Qingming Festival holiday, but it is expected to face correction next Monday, potentially breaking 20,695 points and even retesting the 20,000 point mark. Analysts estimate that Taiwanese stock profits will be revised down by 5% to 8%, and they recommend that investors reduce their holdings, focusing on high dividend and defensive sectors. The market is paying attention to the outcomes of subsequent negotiations, particularly in the semiconductor industry. Investors should observe the situation and avoid frequent operations in the short term.

Trump announced reciprocal tariff rates, severely impacting global capital markets. The Taiwanese stock market temporarily avoided difficulties due to the Qingming holiday, but a gap down is expected next Monday. Analysts estimate that the tariff issue has reached a "systemic risk level," and the Taiwanese stock market may see a corrective drop that could break below the previous low of 20,695 points, potentially even testing and falling below the 20,000 point level. In the worst-case scenario, support may be sought at last year's low of 19,662 points.

After Trump announced the reciprocal tariff rates from various countries, global stock markets generally declined. Analysts point out that the short-term support range for the Taiwanese stock market lies between 18,600 points to 19,500 points, with a reasonable valuation range estimated at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 to 19 times, corresponding to an index range of 18,600 to 23,560 points. Since the tariff rates may still be negotiated, it is recommended to prioritize risk management in the short term, reduce equity holdings, and consider investing in defensive sectors with high dividends, non-export-oriented industries, and those not impacted by tariff shocks.

According to analysts, the actual impact on each link in the supply chain is estimated to result in earnings downgrades for electronic and traditional industries ranging between 5% to 30%. Overall, the earnings estimate for Taiwanese companies is expected to be revised down by 5% to 8%. For example, the earnings growth forecast for the constituents of the Taiwan 50 index, originally estimated at 15% for 2025, will be lowered to single digits.

Analysts indicate that Taiwan's reciprocal tariffs are higher than those of Japan and South Korea, which may more prominently reflect tariff impacts in the short term. The chance of halting the decline will depend on whether countries take measures to negotiate tariff reductions, as Trump’s primary goal is to encourage manufacturing investments to return to the U.S. For the Taiwanese stock market to recover, the government must quickly integrate companies interested in investing in the U.S. and negotiate with the American side to seek tariff reductions.

In summary, experts believe that because the tariff rates are higher than expected, close attention should be paid to the results of subsequent negotiations, especially since semiconductors remain a focal point. In terms of the stock market, given the closure during the Qingming Festival, a corrective drop is expected next Monday, but investors should not be overly pessimistic. It is not recommended to engage in short-term speculative trading in the near term; instead, they should wait to see if a negotiating outcome is reached before April 9, and whether negative sentiment has run its course.