讀後心得

Economist Nouriel Roubini predicts that the U.S. stock market may experience a deep correction before Trump reduces the impact of global trade. He stated that Trump could eventually halve tariffs, believing that this move will keep U.S. economic growth rates at 1-1.5%. Roubini holds a pessimistic view of the economic outlook for the coming weeks, forecasting that the correction will be more severe until the market finds its bottom. He pointed out that Trump is more focused on the bond market and the dollar exchange rate rather than the stock market, believing that excessively high tariffs could affect the election results. Regarding the medium-term economic outlook, Roubini is optimistic that advancements in U.S. technology will drive economic growth, expecting that growth rates could reach 6% by 2040.

Economist Roubini predicts that the stock market may experience a deep correction before U.S. President Trump mitigates the impact on global trade. He anticipates that Trump will halve the tariff rates for a period of time and is optimistic about the medium- to long-term outlook for the U.S. economy. He stated, "If Trump can remain rational, he will lower tariffs." In an interview, Roubini expressed a pessimistic view on the economic, trade, and stock market outlook, pointing out, "Due to the existing uncertainty, this correction might be deeper. Even if the U.S. starts negotiating with other countries in the coming weeks and the market feels a relief from pressure, I believe the correction will still deepen further until it reaches the bottom."

Roubini's "baseline scenario" predicts that Trump will ultimately compromise and halve the tariffs, resulting in the U.S. economic growth rate being between 1% to 1.5% this year. In this scenario, the Federal Reserve will remain unchanged. He emphasized that Trump will not easily reduce tariffs unless faced with "unusual" conditions. He pointed out that if Trump states, "We will negotiate to reduce," he will lose significant leverage.

Compared to the stock market, Roubini believes that Trump is more concerned about the bond market and the dollar exchange rate. He noted that Trump no longer prioritizes stock market performance as he once did; he will adhere to the current strategy for a period and then make changes. "He places more importance on the bond market and the dollar exchange rate. Most stocks are held by a few individuals, so a correction in the stock market has a limited impact, but if government bond yields decline, it will benefit his voter base, as these individuals have mortgages, student loans, and other debts."

Roubini stated that the political cost for Trump is closely related to the existing tariff plan, so it is likely he will adjust policies at an appropriate time. "If he pushes tariffs too high, it will lead to an economic recession, which could put the Republican Party at risk of defeat in the congressional midterm elections next year, thereby affecting his plan to 'Make America Great Again.' If he is rational, he will surely reduce tariffs."

Regarding the medium-term outlook for the U.S. economy, Roubini is quite optimistic, expecting technologies such as artificial intelligence to enhance U.S. productivity continuously driving economic growth. He predicts, "By the late 2020s, the growth rate in the U.S. will rise to 4%, and it will be even higher in the 2030s; the growth rate will increase from the current 2% to 4%, potentially reaching 6% by 2040. Even under adverse policies, the potential for technological innovation still exists and will not be limited."