讀後心得

U.S. President Trump announced a reciprocal tariff policy, imposing punitive tariffs on countries that have a significant trade deficit with the United States, causing panic in the global market. The Taiwan stock market sharply declined and is expected to face downward pressure after the Qingming holiday. Lee Fang-Guo, chairman of Unified Securities Investment Consulting, predicts that the Taiwan stock market will rebound after the TSMC briefing in mid-April and has listed 12 potential positive factors that may boost the market. Although second-quarter performance is expected to be optimistic, short-term market volatility risks still need to be monitored.

U.S. President Trump recently announced a brand new "reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing punitive tariffs on countries that have significant trade deficits with the United States. This action exceeded market expectations and triggered panic in global markets. U.S. stock futures plummeted, Japan's stock market once fell by 1,600 points, while Taiwan faced heavy taxes of up to 32%. The Taiwan Futures Exchange fell by more than 800 points in night trading, and it is expected that after the Qingming Festival holiday, the Taiwan stock market will face heavy adverse pressure upon opening.

The chairman of Unified Investment Consulting predicts that the Taiwan stock market will continue to weaken in the short term, but a turning point may appear around mid-April during the TSMC earnings conference. By then, negative factors are expected to be released, and the index may even rebound from the low point. He pointed out that Trump's tariff measures are considered "the biggest negative factor in April," and the Taiwan stock market will need about two weeks to digest the impact. However, he remains optimistic about a market turnaround in mid-April and advises investors to wait and observe, allowing time for investment layout after TSMC's earnings conference on April 17.

Here are 12 positive factors listed by analysts:

• U.S. earnings season begins: From mid-April, American companies will sequentially announce their financial reports. Although the consensus expects a general downward revision of 5-6%, a low baseline may drive 80% of companies to report better-than-expected results.
• TSMC earnings conference brings good news: The Q1 financial report is expected to perform well, with a continued positive outlook for Q2, and orders for 3nm and 4nm advanced processes are fully loaded.
• Seasonal statistical advantages: The S&P 500's chances of rising in the second quarter exceed 80%, with April to June being a favorable period for U.S. stocks.
• Presidential term cycle bull factors: Since 1984, the S&P index has almost always risen in the second quarter of the first year of a president's term.
• Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction slows: The balance sheet reduction amount in April decreases from $25 billion to $5 billion, releasing liquidity.
• June rate cut expectations already reflected: The market expects to react in May to the June rate cut, restarting the funding market.
• High dividend yield ETF stock replacement topic: High dividend yield ETFs will undergo stock replacement in May and June, expected to attract early positioning by investment trusts.
• NVIDIA CEO visits Taiwan: Jensen Huang will visit Taiwan again, likely to clarify market concerns about AI.
• NVIDIA's excellent earnings performance: The financial report expected to be announced on May 28 will boost market confidence and suppress noise in the AI field.
• Shipping of GB200 chips: NVIDIA will ship a large amount in the second quarter, benefiting the Taiwanese supply chain simultaneously.
• Leaders of China and the U.S. share the same birthday, rumored to hold a Trump-Xi meeting: A signal of easing may be released in mid-June.
• Reduction in geopolitical risks: There may be a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine on May 9, potentially lowering risks.

Despite the optimistic outlook for the second quarter, the market still faces short-term pressures. Some analysts have pointed out that Trump's tariff policy far exceeds the worst-case scenario anticipated by the market, and the Taiwan stock market may temporarily retest the low of August 2023, or even fall below the 19,000-point mark. He reminds investors that if there are no signs of easing tariffs, the market may continue to experience volatility.