讀後心得

Economist Rubini predicts that the US stock market may experience a significant pullback before Trump reduces the global trade impact. He believes that Trump will ultimately halve tariffs and is optimistic about the medium to long-term outlook for the US economy. Rubini stated that although Trump currently focuses on the bond market and the dollar exchange rate, he may adjust tariff policies at an opportune time due to political considerations. He is quite optimistic about future technological advancements, forecasting that the US economic growth rate will rise to 4% in the 2020s.

The economist known as "Dr. Doom," Nouriel Roubini, predicts that the stock market may experience a deep correction before U.S. President Trump reduces the impact on global trade. He also forecasts that Trump will halve the tariff rates after some time and is optimistic about the mid to long-term prospects of the U.S. economy.

During his interview on the 3rd, Roubini reiterated his pessimistic outlook on the economy, trade, and the stock market. He pointed out, "As uncertainty increases, this wave of correction may deepen. Even if in the coming weeks the U.S. begins negotiations with other countries and market pressures ease, I believe the correction will still deepen before hitting the bottom."

Roubini believes that his predicted "baseline scenario" is that Trump will ultimately compromise and halve tariff rates, resulting in U.S. economic growth rates between 1% and 1.5%. In this situation, the Federal Reserve will take no action. He stated, "If Trump is rational, he will reduce the tariffs. And the so-called extraordinary conditions he mentions are the only way to lower tariffs. He has to say this, because if he says, 'We will negotiate to lower,' then he will lose leverage."

Compared to the stock market, Trump is more concerned about the bond market and the dollar exchange rate. Roubini believes that Trump is no longer as focused on stock market performance as he used to be; rather, he will adhere to the current strategy for some time before changing it. "He values the bond market and the dollar exchange rate more. Most stocks are held by 10% of the people, so a stock market correction has little impact on him; but if the bond yields drop, it benefits his voter base, as those people have mortgages, student loans, auto loans, and other personal loans."

Roubini pointed out that Trump's political costs are closely related to the current tariff plans, so he will change strategies at the appropriate time. "If he pushes the tariffs too high, the economy will fall into recession this year. If the economy goes into recession this year, the Republican Party will face losses in the midterm elections next year, and losing the elections would mean that his 'Make America Great Again' plan will go down the drain. Therefore, if he has any sense, he will understand that he must reduce the tariffs."

Regarding the mid-term outlook for the U.S. economy, Roubini holds a rather optimistic view, expecting technologies such as artificial intelligence to enhance U.S. productivity and drive economic growth. He predicts, "By the end of the 2020s, the U.S. growth rate will reach 4%, and it will be even higher in the 2030s; our growth rate will increase from 2% to 4%, and by 2040 it might reach 6%. Even with Trump, even with bad policies, technological innovation cannot be stopped."