讀後心得

U.S. President Trump announced the imposition of punitive tariffs on countries with significant trade deficits with the United States. This policy exceeded market expectations, causing drastic changes in global financial markets, with both the U.S. and Taiwanese stock markets experiencing severe declines. Analyst 黎方國 predicts that after a short-term turbulence, the Taiwanese stock market will see a turning point around mid-April during the TSMC earnings call. He suggests that investors should remain cautious and wait for the 12 positive factors in the market to emerge, hoping for a rebound. In the short term, the market still needs to digest the impact of the tariffs and may retest the lows of 2023.

The U.S. President Trump has recently forcefully introduced the "reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing punitive tariffs on countries with a significant trade deficit with the United States. This move exceeded market expectations and caused global market panic. U.S. stock futures fell sharply, Japanese stocks plunged by as much as 1,600 points at one point, and Taiwan's tax rate reached as high as 32%, with night trading in Taiwan index futures dropping over 800 points. It is expected that after the Qingming festival holiday, the Taiwan stock market will face significant pressure for a major correction.

The chairman of Unified Securities predicts that the Taiwan stock market will continue to weaken in the short term, with a potential turning point around mid-April during the TSMC earnings conference. If the negative news is fully priced in at that time, a strong rebound is expected, and the index may quickly recover from its low point. He pointed out that Trump's tariff policy can be seen as "the biggest negative factor in April," and the Taiwan stock market will need about two weeks to digest this impact.

He is also optimistic about the market outlook in mid-April and suggests that investors take a wait-and-see approach, waiting for TSMC's earnings conference on April 17 to make their moves. By then, the market may welcome 12 significant positive themes, paving the way for a strong rebound in the Taiwan stock market.

• The U.S. earnings season is starting, with expectations that most companies will report better-than-expected results.
• The outlook for TSMC's Q1 earnings report announced at the earnings conference is optimistic.
• The second quarter is usually a good time for U.S. stock performance.
• Statistical data on U.S. presidential term cycles shows an uptrend in performance during the second quarter.
• The pace of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction will slow down, increasing market liquidity.
• Market expectations for a rate cut in June will also be reflected in advance.
• High dividend yield ETFs undergoing stock swaps may attract capital inflows.
• The CEO of Nvidia will visit Taiwan in May to clarify concerns about the AI market.
• Nvidia's earnings report is expected to boost market confidence.
• Shipments of the GB200 chip in the second quarter will increase.
• A meeting between U.S. and Chinese leaders in mid-June may send signals of easing tensions.
• There is a possibility of cooling down geopolitical risks.

While the outlook for the second quarter is optimistic, the market also faces short-term pressures. Analysts warn that Trump's tariff actions exceeded the worst-case expectations of the market, and the Taiwan stock market may not rule out a retest of the low of August 2023 in the short term, potentially even breaking below the 19,000-point barrier. If there are no signs of tariff easing, the market is likely to remain volatile.