讀後心得

The United States has announced a 10% tariff on all countries, which could lead to a significant increase in iPhone prices. Experts point out that the saturated smartphone market and intensified competition limit the price increase potential for the iPhone, and suppliers are gradually withdrawing from Apple's supply chain in search of products with higher profits. According to estimates, if costs are passed on to consumers, the retail price of high-end iPhones could approach $2,300 (approximately NT$76,000). Analysts indicate that Apple needs to diversify its supply chain to cope with tariffs, but long-term challenges remain, and the new tariff policy has a significant impact on overall gross margins. Apple can mitigate the impact of price increases on consumers by collaborating with telecommunications companies to enhance subsidies and other measures.

The United States announced reciprocal tariff measures, which are expected to raise the price of iPhones in the U.S. Experts analyze that due to the saturation of the smartphone market and intense competition, the price increase space for iPhones is relatively limited, and suppliers are gradually withdrawing from iPhone orders in pursuit of higher profit products, putting Apple in a difficult position. The U.S. President announced on the 3rd that a 10% tariff will be imposed on all countries, effective from the early hours of the 5th. This move also includes imposing "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 17% to 49% on other countries with significant trade deficits with the U.S., with Taiwan's rate at 32%; China, as a major country in Apple's supply chain, has a rate of 34%. Combined with the previously imposed 20%, the cumulative tax rate reaches 54%. According to forecasts, if Apple passes the cost onto consumers, the price of a high-end iPhone may approach $2300 (approximately NT$76,000).

A senior analyst noted that although the specifications of new iPhone models have improved in recent years, their prices have not continuously risen, indicating that iPhone prices have reached a "ceiling." She stated that as competition among Chinese smartphone manufacturers intensifies and market demand becomes saturated, Apple's innovation capabilities are being questioned, which will limit the price increase potential of the iPhone and create considerable pressure. In the past, Apple often required suppliers to share the burden of rising costs, but in recent years, many Taiwanese assembly and component manufacturers have gradually exited Apple's supply chain, selling their factories to Chinese or Indian companies, which has weakened suppliers' bargaining power with Apple.

She believes that Apple needs to diversify its supply chain to cope with tariff costs, and in the short term, may increase production in India from the current approximately 15% to 30% by 2025 to 2026. However, in the long term, as many countries around the world face tariff challenges, even if production bases are shifted, it will be difficult to see effective results. The analyst also mentioned that Apple's hardware assembly is primarily concentrated in China, India, and Vietnam, and after the implementation of the new tariff policy, the cost of hardware products exported to the U.S. from these regions will significantly increase. If Apple does not raise prices, the overall gross margin is expected to decrease by about 8.5% to 9%.

Although the tariff policy has a negative impact on Apple, the company still has viable countermeasures. In the U.S. market, the proportion of new high-end iPhones can reach 65% to 70%, which high-end users are relatively willing to accept price increases. Apple can pass on the tariff costs in various ways, such as collaborating with telecom operators to increase subsidy amounts, reducing Trade-In discount schemes, etc., while also potentially strengthening its bargaining power over the supply chain.

Furthermore, it is important to monitor the potential negative impact of the new tariff policy on the macroeconomy in the medium to long term, as a decrease in consumer confidence and purchasing power may prolong the replacement cycle for iPhones.