讀後心得

The tariff war has caused a widespread decline in precious metal prices, with gold reaching a peak of $3,167 per ounce on April 3. However, following Trump's announcement to exempt precious metals from tariffs, the price quickly fell, dropping about 6% within two days. Experts point out that investors have shifted their funds towards U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe haven, resulting in decreased interest in gold. Taiwan currently holds approximately 422.7 metric tons of gold, but this represents only 6% of its foreign exchange reserves. The future market trends remain uncertain, and investors need to stay vigilant.

The tariff war has caused a comprehensive decline in precious metal prices. The price of gold, which has been continuously rising, reached its peak on the 3rd, particularly influenced by the migration wave in the past. However, after Trump announced the exemption of tariffs on precious metals, gold prices dropped by about 6% within these two days. Experts analyze that, in addition to the end of arbitrage, some investors may also choose to hedge by shifting their funds towards U.S. Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar.

A report indicated that gold prices were affected. For example, the selling price of a gold bracelet was 137,000 NTD on April 3rd, but after Trump announced the tariffs (on April 5th), the price dropped to 131,000 NTD, a 6,000 NTD difference over two days. Trump's exemption of tariffs on precious metals led to an unusual reversal of precious metal arbitrage that had occurred previously.

The vice chairman of the Taipei Jewelry and Gold Merchants Association stated that some investors needed to replenish cash, so they sold some gold. The previous rise in gold prices was primarily driven by the uncertain tariff policies, coupled with the migration wave between London and New York, which increased gold and silver inventories and caused the U.S. trade deficit to reach new highs.

On April 3rd, the spot trading price of gold soared to 3,167 USD, but after the tariff exemption was confirmed, the price fell to 3,134 USD on the 4th and further declined to 3,037 USD on the 5th, a drop of nearly 6%. At the same time, the price spread between gold on the New York Mercantile Exchange and London spot gold also shrank by nearly 20 USD.

Aside from the closing of arbitrage positions, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in the short term due to a significant drop in the stock market. The vice chairman pointed out that funds are currently flowing directly into U.S. Treasury bonds as a hedge, while gold seems to have failed to attract market interest during these two days. However, experts have differing opinions on future trends.

A certain investment management vice president believes that if the Federal Reserve has not officially cut interest rates, gold may still face downward pressure. However, if the Federal Reserve announces rate cuts in the future, the attractiveness of gold in the market remains potential.

According to central bank statistics, Taiwan currently holds approximately 422.7 metric tons of gold, with a market value exceeding 1.3 trillion NTD, but its proportion in foreign exchange reserves is only 6%, relatively low compared to the 60% to 70% held by European and American countries. Although there are still variables in future trends, the impact of the tariff war has already been quite severe, and investors must remain vigilant.