讀後心得

Trump announced the implementation of a 32% tariff, leading to a two-day sharp decline in U.S. stocks. The Taiwanese stock market is expected to be similarly affected on Monday, with analysts warning of a potential drop of a thousand points. If TSMC hits its lower limit, its stock price could fall from 942 NT dollars to 848 NT dollars, which could pull down the Taiwanese stock market by 770 points. Executive Yuan Premier Su Tseng-chang has convened a meeting to consider implementing a short-selling ban. Additionally, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar has risen, resulting in increased costs for Taiwanese purchases of Japanese goods, and the Bank of Japan has recently experienced a strong rebound due to safe-haven demand. Analysts predict that the yen may strengthen further, and the potential adjustment in the Taiwanese stock market could exceed a thousand points, making market sentiment a crucial area to watch.

After Trump announced a 32% tariff, the U.S. stock market suffered heavy losses for two consecutive days, while the Taiwan stock market faced downward pressure on Monday, with analysts warning that it could drop by a thousand points. If TSMC hits the limit down, its stock price may plummet from 900 NTD to 848 NTD, further dragging the Taiwan stock market down by 770 points. In response, Executive Yuan Premier Su Tseng-chang convened a meeting with relevant financial institutions to discuss, and does not rule out issuing a short-selling prohibition. In the foreign exchange market, the Taiwan stock market remains sluggish, with investors massively purchasing Japanese yen for hedging. On the 4th, the cash exchange rate for the yen briefly exceeded 0.23.

At Japanese chain stores, holiday crowds surged, with shopping baskets filled to the brim with snacks, cosmetics, and daily necessities. Take this Godzilla figure for example, priced at 500 NTD and not out of reach. However, purchasing Japanese goods in Taiwan will become more expensive in the future, as the Japanese yen continues to rise. According to the Taipei Bank's quotation on April 4, the exchange rate for the yen is 0.23, which, if exchanged for 100,000 NTD, would cost 53 bowls less of Ichiran ramen compared to the low point last July.

The announcement of equivalent tariffs has revitalized the once sluggish yen. Following the sharp decline in U.S. stocks, investor hedging intentions have increased, resulting in a rapid appreciation of the yen against the dollar, which at one point reached 145.19 yen per dollar. With the volatility in the foreign exchange market, the strength of Asian currencies has also shifted. Analysts predict that if the stock market situation worsens, there will be a massive influx of funds into the yen, potentially pushing the exchange rate to 0.242.

The public is being cautious about converting to yen, with some opting to exchange small amounts when the rate is lower. With tariffs rising, the U.S. stock market has already faced significant losses, and the Taiwan stock market will also be affected in the upcoming trading days, prompting netizens to speculate on the worst-case scenarios. Based on TSMC's closing price of 942 NTD on the 2nd, if it hits the limit down, it may drop to 848 NTD; furthermore, every time TSMC drops by 1 NTD, the weighted index may decrease by 8.2 points, which could lead to a loss of 770 points for the Taiwan stock market.

Analysts point out that after Monday, the Taiwan stock market will face adjustments with a range of at least a thousand points. Currently, TSMC also lacks short-term signals to halt its decline. The market must closely monitor changes in sentiment before the earnings briefing on April 17. If panic occurs, and the trading volume surpasses 660 billion NTD, it may lead to a shift in chips, and if 300 or 400 stocks hit the limit down during the session, it could signal a rebound. However, caution is still advised to avoid rushing into the market.