讀後心得

After Trump announced reciprocal tariffs, inflation in the United States rose again; surprisingly, international oil prices fell. In the last three days, the price of Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil has dropped by $10 per barrel, potentially reaching $60. The reason lies in OPEC's plan to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May. Experts analyze that this is to avoid high oil prices triggering inflation and is influenced by pressure from Trump. Currently, Brent crude is about $65, while West Texas Intermediate crude is below $62, showing a significant price drop in the short term. To reduce geopolitical risks, OPEC is considering the development of new energy sources.

Trump announced the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, bringing the inflation problem in the United States back into focus. While most economists were not surprised, one thing surprised experts: international oil prices unexpectedly "decreased" instead of rising. Over the past three days, the price of Brent crude and West Texas crude dropped by $10 per barrel and may reach as low as $60. The reason for this change lies in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announcing an increase in daily crude oil production by 411,000 barrels starting in May. Experts analyze that OPEC may be concerned that high oil prices could act as a catalyst for inflation, and thus they are being scrutinized by Trump.

Gas station owners in North Carolina stated, "Everyone is still expecting grocery and gas prices to decrease." Two months ago, the American public's expectations were unexpectedly half-realized after Trump announced reciprocal tariffs. Despite rising prices, oil prices have unexpectedly become cheaper. The director of energy research at MST Marquis pointed out, "The tariffs announced by Trump will significantly reduce crude oil demand. Generally speaking, a 0.6% decline in GDP usually means a 1% drop in oil demand. The market originally expected OPEC to restrict supply and slow down production cuts, but in reality, OPEC made the opposite decision."

Experts previously believed that a decrease in demand would lead OPEC to cut production, predicting that gasoline prices in the U.S. could rise to about NT$30 per liter. Unexpectedly, OPEC chose to increase production by 411,000 barrels daily, resulting in a rapid decline in international oil prices. Currently, Brent crude is around $65 per barrel, with West Texas crude below $62, and the decline on Friday was between 6% and 7%, all happening within just three days.

So, why did OPEC suddenly lower oil prices? Experts pointed out that this is mainly due to their concern about becoming accomplices to uncontrolled inflation in the U.S., which could lead to scrutiny from Trump. Saul Kavonic from MST Marquis stated, "This is to appease Trump, as Trump will pressure OPEC to lower oil prices in order to reduce global energy prices and offset the impact of his tariffs on inflation." However, this also shows that OPEC, under geopolitical risks, handed over part of the control of the crude oil market to Trump.

Despite this, Trump prefers the U.S. to tap into more oil, thereby competing with OPEC. Energy analysts at Washington think tanks pointed out that the U.S. has already become the largest oil-producing country in the world, and the industry may not necessarily want to increase production further. For OPEC member countries, especially higher-output Gulf states, diversifying risks and developing new energy sources will be important strategies.

According to the International Energy Agency's 2024 report, energy investments in the Middle East are expected to reach $175 billion, with 15% of the investment allocated for clean energy. For example, the UAE recently announced it will invest NT$192 billion to build new solar power plants and utilize new technologies to cool data centers with solar energy, aiming to reduce power supply pressure by 60% to 70%.