讀後心得

The tariff war has had a significant impact on the precious metals market. After gold prices reached a peak of $3,167 per ounce on April 3, they fell by about 6% to $3,037 within just two days following Trump's announcement to exempt precious metals from tariffs. Market experts point out that funds have flowed into U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven, leading to a decrease in gold demand. Although the current volatility in gold prices is within an expected range, the future situation remains uncertain, and investors should remain vigilant.

The tariff war has had a comprehensive impact on the precious metals market, especially with significant fluctuations in gold prices. Recently, due to the effects of migration trends, gold hit a peak within three days. However, after Trump announced the exemption of precious metals from tariffs, gold prices dropped by about 6% in the past two days. Experts analyzed that, in addition to the end of arbitrage, investors may be turning to U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar as safe-haven options.

According to reports, gold prices reached 137,000 NTD on April 3, but fell to 131,000 NTD after Trump announced the tariff exemption on April 5, resulting in a price drop of 6,000 NTD in just two days. Additionally, Trump's policy change has reversed the unusual premiums for precious metals. The vice-chairman of the Taipei City Gold and Silver Jewelry Commercial Association stated that some businesses needed cash, leading to the sale of part of their gold.

Previously, gold prices had continued to rise due to the uncertainty of tariff policies boosting the demand for precious metals. The inventory of gold and silver transported from London to New York has increased, resulting in new highs for the U.S. trade deficit. On April 3, the spot gold trading price soared to 3,167 USD per ounce, but after the confirmation of the tariff exemption, the price dropped to 3,134 USD on the 4th and further down to 3,037 USD on the 5th, with a total decline of nearly 6 percentage points.

The price spread between gold and London spot gold also decreased by nearly 20 USD. Experts believe that the market will not lower interest rates in response to a sharp drop in the stock market in the short term, leading to a shift of funds toward U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe-haven choice. Observations in the market suggest that gold has recently failed to attract sufficient capital inflow. Regarding the future trends of gold prices, experts have differing opinions; some believe that the fluctuations in gold prices are within a predictable range and will not result in a significant collapse, while others indicate that if the U.S. Federal Reserve does not enter a rate-cutting phase, gold prices may face downward pressure.

However, if the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut in the future, gold may still attract market attention towards the end. Currently, Taiwan holds approximately 422.7 metric tons of gold, valued at over 1.3 trillion TWD, which only accounts for 6% of foreign exchange reserves, far below the 60% to 70% seen in Europe and the United States. The future trends are still full of variables, and the impact of the tariff war needs to be closely monitored, urging investors to remain vigilant.