讀後心得

On April 3, Trump announced a tariff list including 185 countries and regions, unexpectedly excluding Russia and Belarus, and did not include Ukraine. After the Russia-Ukraine war, trade between the United States and Russia significantly decreased, but the U.S. still imports important resources like fertilizers. Analysts believe that Trump's decision may send a political signal of improving relations with Russia. Although the trade volume between the U.S. and Russia is far below pre-war levels, imposing high tariffs on certain products could impact U.S. energy prices, thus aligning Trump's decision not to impose tariffs with his policy goals. The recovery of trade between the U.S. and Russia still faces many limitations in the future.

Trump announced on Thursday (April 3) a list of countries and regions that will be subject to reciprocal tariffs, covering 185 countries around the world. However, surprisingly, a very small number of countries are excluded from the list, including Russia and Belarus, but not Ukraine. The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated in a media interview that, due to the current sanctions on Russia, there is essentially no trade between the U.S. and Russia. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. and other countries (mainly European) implemented further sanctions against Russia. The White House spokesperson emphasized that U.S. sanctions have prevented any "meaningful trade" with Russia. But is that really the case?

According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the volume of goods traded between the U.S. and Russia has significantly decreased since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war: from approximately $36 billion in 2021 to around $3.5 billion in 2024. Therefore, the Treasury Secretary's claim that there is "no trade with Russia" is not accurate. Although the number of goods imported from Russia is small, these goods are important strategic materials for the U.S., such as fertilizers and inorganic chemicals. While the current trade volume is far below pre-war levels, this still does not completely explain why Trump did not include Russia in the tariff list.

• For example, the U.S. imposes a 27% tariff on imported goods from Kazakhstan, and the trade volume between Kazakhstan and the U.S. is roughly comparable to that of Russia, approximately $3.4 billion, of which $2.3 billion is imported from the U.S.
• The trade volume with Ukraine is even lower, around $2.9 billion, of which $1.2 billion is imports, but it is included in Trump's tariff list and assessed a 10% penalty tariff.

Despite other sanctioned countries, including Venezuela, being on Trump's new tariff list, countries like Russia, North Korea, Cuba, and Belarus, which are also sanctioned, are exempted. This may be interpreted as a symbolic gesture of leniency. Some experts believe that Trump's exclusion of Russia from the tariff list is a clear political signal indicating that improving relations with Moscow is a priority for him.

Furthermore, while the U.S. has not published bilateral trade data with North Korea, Cuba, and Belarus, estimates from the United Nations suggest that U.S.-Belarus trade reaches several tens of millions of dollars annually. For example, in 2024, the U.S. imported approximately $21 million worth of goods from Belarus. Hence, it can be inferred that the criteria for this tariff list are not entirely based on the trade scale with a particular country.

On the other hand, Canada and Mexico are not included in the new tariff list. However, it should be noted that most goods imported from these two countries are already subject to a 25% tariff. Regarding the reasons for Trump's lack of tariffs on Russia, some scholars suggest that it is related to the current diplomatic engagement between the two countries. In the future, if the Trump administration is willing, tariffs on Russia could still be imposed.

Although the U.S. claims that U.S.-Russia bilateral trade is "negligible," in fact, the U.S. is still importing materials from Russia such as nuclear fuel, fertilizers, and platinum metals. If high tariffs are imposed on these items, it could lead to an increase in U.S. energy prices, which contradicts Trump's policy goals. Nevertheless, the current trade volume is still far lower than that of Europe or China with Russia, and it is unlikely to return to previous trading levels in the future.