讀後心得

China has imposed a 34% tariff on imports of American goods as a countermeasure to the U.S. equivalent tariff policy. The report indicates that while China's dependence on U.S. agricultural products appears high, it actually has significant substitutability, so this measure will affect American agriculture and Trump's important voter base. China also plans to impose tariffs ranging from 15% to 10% on certain U.S. agricultural products starting from March 10. The report analyzes four directions of China's countermeasures, including resisting U.S. hegemony, regulating rare earth exports, and targeting Trump's agricultural and technology enterprises. Furthermore, China's agricultural trade focus is gradually shifting towards South America, and it is expected that the total agricultural trade volume with the U.S. will decrease by 7.2% by 2024.

China has countered the United States' equivalent tariff policy by deciding to impose a 34% tariff on imported goods from the United States. The report notes that China's imports of agricultural products from the U.S. seem to be highly dependent, but in reality, these are highly substitutable primary products. The imposition of tariffs will deal a blow to U.S. agriculture, particularly affecting Trump's agricultural voting base.

On the 2nd, the U.S. President announced this equivalent tariff policy at the White House, and subsequently, on the 4th, China's State Council issued countermeasures, criticizing the U.S. side as a form of unilateral bullying. This policy will take effect on the 10th, increasing the tax rate on U.S. goods by 34% on top of existing tariffs. Prior to this wave of countermeasures, the State Council of China announced on March 4 that starting March 10, tariffs would be imposed on certain goods from the U.S., including a 15% tariff on 29 categories such as chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, as well as a 10% tariff on 711 categories of agricultural products including sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products.

A report released by Chinese brokerage firms indicates that these countermeasures can be divided into four main directions: "Setting an example to combat the U.S. unilateral hegemonic behavior," "rare earth export controls," "striking at Trump's agricultural voting base," and "targeting technology and military enterprises through export controls and a unreliable entities list." The report emphasizes that the U.S. rural areas and agriculture are an important political support source for Trump. Although China's agriculture seems to have a higher dependence on the U.S., in reality, the substitutability of its primary products is strong, thus imposing tariffs will force Trump to face pressure from voters, which has a relatively small impact on China.

Reports indicate that U.S. agricultural products have consistently been the main area where China has imposed tariffs during past waves of trade frictions. For instance, in 2018, U.S. soybean exports significantly declined due to tariff impacts. As a major consumer of agricultural products, China has ample confidence to adopt such countermeasures. The report mentions that in recent years, China has not only strengthened the protection of arable land and high-quality seeds and methods, continuously increasing agricultural product yields but has also adopted a diversification strategy in import channels, gradually shifting its trade focus towards South America.

According to statistics from Chinese customs, the total agricultural trade between China and the U.S. is expected to reach 39.87 billion dollars in 2024, a decrease of 7.2% year-on-year, accounting for 12.5% of China's total agricultural product trade. In terms of details, China's agricultural imports from the U.S. are projected to be 27.53 billion dollars in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%, accounting for 12.8% of China's total imports.