讀後心得

U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs will be implemented soon, although there are widespread predictions that these plans may be delayed or modified. Tariffs have already been raised on various goods including China, steel, and automobiles, with higher tariffs on automobiles expected to take effect this week. Trump will unveil more detailed tariff measures on April 2, which may cover "all countries." Although the specific rates have not yet been determined, Trump mentioned last year the possibility of imposing a comprehensive 10% or higher tariff on imported goods. Many countries, such as the United Kingdom, face potential sanctions, and analysts point out that these tariffs could lead to increased business costs and a heightened risk of economic recession, potentially altering the global trade landscape.

U.S. President Trump has indicated an imminent increase in tariffs. Although there is widespread belief that these plans may be postponed, weakened, or canceled, messages regarding tariffs continue. Which tariffs will be imposed specifically and when will they begin? Since his inauguration, import duties have followed one after another, making changes difficult to track. Trump has raised tariffs on Chinese imports, steel, aluminum, and certain goods from Canada and Mexico. Higher auto tariffs will also take effect this week. Currently, we are waiting for Trump to announce the details of broader tariff measures planned for implementation, and his team has reportedly been working on this plan for the past few weeks. He will announce the relevant details at 4 PM Eastern Time on April 2, which the White House has dubbed "liberation day." So, what information can we expect on Wednesday? What will be the specific amounts of tariffs? While analysts have proposed various possible rates, the White House has yet to disclose specific figures. During last year's campaign, Trump supported a 10% tariff on all imported products entering the U.S. and sometimes hinted that rates could be as high as 20%, and even up to 60% for Chinese goods. After taking office, he introduced the idea of "reciprocal tariffs," suggesting that rates could vary from country to country. "Simply put, if they charge us, we will charge them," he stated shortly before issuing a directive in February for officials to develop such a plan. The White House quickly complicated matters by indicating that its proposals reflected not just tariffs but also other policies they deemed unfair to U.S. businesses, such as value-added taxes. This led to confusion as businesses and political leaders tried to understand how high the tariffs on their products would be and how Wednesday's measures would interact with other tariffs Trump has implemented (such as those on steel and aluminum). For example, European officials are preparing for high tariffs that their exported products may face. Earlier this year, Trump stated that he planned to impose a 25% import tax on goods from the EU.

The Trump administration has not confirmed which countries will be affected but has been signaling that Wednesday's announcement will cover a broad range. On Sunday, Trump indicated that the new tariffs could apply to "all countries," suggesting a reinstatement of the comprehensive tariff scheme he supported during his campaign. This has dashed hopes for some countries (like the UK) that they could avoid this policy, though many still hope to reach some sort of agreement with the U.S. It remains unclear whether these tariffs will be implemented universally or selectively. Last month, the U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the government's focus was on the "dirty 15 countries"—the 15 countries with significant trade volumes with the U.S. that impose tariffs or other rules making it disadvantageous for U.S. companies. The U.S. Trade Representative's office identified "countries of special interest" in drafting proposals, which include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the EU, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, the UK, and Vietnam.

How will Trump's imposition of auto tariffs affect the automotive manufacturing industry? Will these tariffs change the global dominance of "made in China"? Countries could potentially be broadly categorized into different levels, essentially implementing universal tariffs. As a G7 negotiating representative stated, "Everything depends on President Trump." Trump has directed some of his harshest criticism at historical allies and major trading partners (like Canada and the EU), stating, "Friends can often be worse than enemies," last week.

What impacts will tariffs bring? Tariffs are taxes imposed on imported products. The biggest question is: who will pay this bill? Technically, the simple answer is: American companies will foot the bill, especially if the White House begins imposing tariffs "immediately" as claimed. However, the higher the tariffs, the more likely companies will look for ways to offset these costs, such as switching suppliers, encouraging business partners to share the burden, or raising prices for American consumers. Many businesses have indicated they are already preparing for this step, but it is a gamble; if prices rise too high, consumers may turn away from the products. These dynamics raise the risk of an economic recession in the U.S. and exacerbate the risks faced by many companies reliant on U.S. sales amid economic downturns abroad. Trump stated that companies looking to avoid tariffs could initiate business in the U.S. directly, but this is not an immediate solution, as the costs of hiring employees and setting up factories in the U.S. are quite high. Considering currency fluctuations and retaliation from other countries, the impact of Trump's attempts to reset global trade balances may remain unpredictable for a long time.

Every time Trump mentions his plans to levy tariffs on a large number of imports to the U.S., it is generally believed that these tariffs will be postponed, weakened, or canceled. On Wednesday, he will reveal in the White House Rose Garden his appreciation for what he calls "the most beautiful word in the dictionary," essentially marking the end of decades of economic globalization. He may still impose universal tariffs on all goods entering the U.S., which could be seen as a blow to the global trading system. The option of a 20% universal tariff is the only means to achieve the trillions of dollars in revenue projected by some consultants. In recent days, Trump has insisted that tariffs will be "reciprocal," and the U.S. will treat its trading partners "fairly." This does not rule out massive levies of 10% or 20% tariffs, depending on whether the U.S. considers value-added tax as a tax as well. Countries could potentially be widely subjected to different levels of universal tariffs. One G7 negotiating representative stated, "Everything is in President Trump's hands." If countries worldwide retaliated in a reciprocal manner, it could lead to a 1% contraction in the UK economy, which would be enough to erase economic growth and increase pressure for tax hikes or spending cuts.

According to research, the total global costs based on trade diversion and price increases could reach $1.4 trillion (approximately £1.1 trillion). Some observers expect the EU to retaliate against American technology companies. If the UK not only refrains from retaliation but also chooses to reduce taxes significantly for major American tech companies, it would create an immediate contrast. Trade wars are difficult to win but can easily result in losses for everyone. A 20% universal tariff or other equivalent measures would deliver a historic blow to the global trading system, comparable to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff nearly a century ago. However, the real question is whether the U.S. can afford to overly alienate its allies while keeping China waiting. The losses for U.S. businesses in Europe may be balanced by the influx of cheaper goods from the East, leading to lower prices in the American market. The measures announced on Wednesday aim not only to reshape American trade but also to alter the way global business operates.