讀後心得

President Trump announced tariff measures on the 2nd, and the Chinese government subsequently decided to retaliate by imposing a 34% tariff on all imports from the United States starting on the 10th. The global trade war continues to escalate, with stock markets experiencing consecutive declines, resulting in losses of up to 6.6 trillion yuan, and the Nasdaq index has already entered a bear market. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell noted that the impact of tariffs on the economy is beyond expectations and could lead to rising inflation and slowing economic growth. Although the employment report for March showed job growth, it failed to calm market sentiment. Powell emphasized that the effects of tariffs remain unclear and that they will watch the economic situation. He also pointed out that many companies will pause new investments after understanding the tariffs.

After the tariff measures announced by President Trump on the 2nd, the Chinese government decided to take a hard stance on the 4th, announcing a 34% tariff on all US imports starting from the 10th. The tension in the global trade war shows no signs of easing, leading to two consecutive days of panic selling in the stock market, with market losses skyrocketing to a record 6.6 trillion yuan. The Nasdaq index has dropped 22% from its historical high last year, officially putting tech stocks into a bear market.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve stated that the tariffs and their impact on the economy and inflation "far exceeded expectations," putting the US economy at risk of rising inflation and slowing growth, further hitting the stock market. Trump called for interest rate cuts on his social media, emphasizing that this is the best time to do so, and hopes that Powell will stop considering politics.

In terms of market data, on the 4th, the S&P 500 index fell 6%, the Nasdaq index dropped 5.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged by 2231 points. Investors were engaged in massive sell-offs, indicating the high risks of tariffs and their retaliatory actions affecting the outlook for the global economy and corporate profits. The deadlock in the trade war has made the situation more severe. This week has been the worst for the stock market since 2020, with the Dow plummeting over 3000 points, declining about 7.9%, entering correction territory, while the Nasdaq has already fallen into a bear market, and the S&P 500 index has also shrunk by 9.1%.

The latest employment report shows that the US economy added 228,000 jobs in March, but the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs has yet to impact the labor market. However, this unexpectedly strong report did not bring much comfort to investors. Analysts at JPMorgan have raised the probability of a global economic recession to 60%.

The Secretary of State acknowledged that the market is "collapsing," but emphasized that the economy is not collapsing, and global businesses will adapt to the new environment. Powell stated in a meeting that import taxes may lead to a temporary rise in inflation, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve will wait on economic conditions, limiting benchmark interest rates, and avoiding interest rate cuts in the short term. He noted that many companies are pausing new investments, waiting for clearer impacts from the tariffs, and pointed out that the current wait-and-see attitude is correct.

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