讀後心得

According to the Central News Agency's "March 2025 National Policy Poll" from the Beautiful Island Electronic Newspaper, President 賴清德 has seen a significant rise in trust and satisfaction levels, reaching 56.7% and 55.6% respectively, marking a record high since taking office; meanwhile, Premier 卓榮泰's satisfaction rating has also increased to 47.4%. In contrast, the favorability of the two major opposition parties has noticeably declined, with the Kuomintang's favorability dropping to 27.2% and its disfavor rising to 61.2%, while the situation for the People's Party is similar. The cohesion among supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party has strengthened, with increased favorability towards the party and its leaders, reflecting the effectiveness of the "anti-China protection of Taiwan" strategy. However, despite the positive poll performance, a majority of the public remains reserved about a large-scale recall election, indicating societal anxiety regarding this measure. Future election outcomes will also depend on whether the Democratic Progressive Party can sustain its current support momentum.

According to the latest poll data, President Lai Ching-te's trust rating, satisfaction level, Premier Su Tseng-chang's satisfaction rating, and the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) favorability all saw significant increases this month. Meanwhile, the favorability of the main opposition party has noticeably declined, with its disfavor rising sharply. In the current climate of heightened populism and intensified social divisions, these results have left many feeling confused.

This month, Lai Ching-te's trust rating has increased by 6.2% to 56.7%, marking the second-highest point since he took office over a year ago, only behind last August's 58.9%. Meanwhile, the disapproval rate dropped by 3.5% to 37.0%. Since last November, the trust and distrust ratio for Lai has shown a converging trend, with last month's approval outpacing disapproval by 10.0%, but this month it has widened to 19.3%.

In terms of satisfaction, Lai Ching-te's satisfaction level rose by 7.0% to 55.6%, while discontent fell by 1.1% to 40.6%. This marks his highest satisfaction rating since taking office, surpassing last year's 54.4% by 1.2%. Premier Su Tseng-chang's satisfaction even increased by 10.6% to 47.4%, with discontent decreasing by 3.4% to 35.7%. Since last November, Su's satisfaction and discontent levels have been converging, with this month reaching the highest level since he took office.

As for the DPP's favorability, it has increased by 9.1% to 52.7%, with disfavor decreasing by 4.8% to 40.9%. Currently, the DPP’s favorability is nearly twice that of the Kuomintang (KMT). In contrast, the KMT's favorability has dropped by 4.2% to just 27.2%, with disfavor increasing by 6.5% to 61.2%. The People's Party's favorability has also decreased by 3.3% to 25.2%, with disfavor rising by 5.4% to 61.0%. Due to changes in the political landscape, the People's Party has had to align with the KMT, and both parties show similar trends in favorability and disfavorability.

This month, the G1 to G3 pan-blue group totaled 27.9%, a decrease of 5.0% from last month, while the G7 to G9 pan-green group increased by 6.8% to 48.5%, nearing half of the total electorate. Self-identified pan-blue voters decreased by 2.8% to 20.5%, while self-identified pan-green individuals increased to 44.1%, more than double that of the pan-blue group. Supporters of the People's Party also dropped by 2.3% to 7.5%. Comparing data from February and March, it is evident that the performance of the pan-blue groups in G1 to G3 has declined overall, while there has been significant growth in the deep green and secondary green groups.

Despite the KMT's poor recent performance, which has crushed the pan-blue group's confidence, related polls show that the pan-blue favorability towards the KMT has fallen from last month's 73.8% to 66.3%, while disfavor rose from 17.2% to 24.7%. In contrast, the DPP's favorability among the pan-green group has risen to 90.2%, indicating a strong cohesive tendency. If this trend continues, Lai Ching-te is expected to shake off the shadows of past governance, hence he is particularly proactive towards the upcoming recall election.

Paradoxically, even though Lai Ching-te, Su Tseng-chang, and the DPP are outpacing the opposition parties in poll performance, when asked about Su's discourse on budget cuts to the opposition, over half of the public does not support it. This indicates that there is still a lingering disfavor towards the recall, despite the acceptance level reaching 70% among pan-green supporters. This also explains why the DPP needs to emphasize anti-China and pro-Taiwan sentiments, hoping to generate more support.

In the current political climate, if this atmosphere can be maintained until the recall vote, the DPP is expected to achieve favorable results. However, looking at the overall data, the DPP's political momentum is nearing its limit, and the anti-China, pro-Taiwan strategy may also encounter bottlenecks. Whether Lai Ching-te and the DPP can maintain this momentum before the vote will be the key to victory or defeat.