"The blockade of Taiwan will face a severe power shortage within 10 days, and the economy will collapse completely after 40 days," the Legislative Yuan report detailed.
讀後心得
[FTNN News Network] reported that regarding the impact on Taiwan's economy and daily life if the Chinese Communist Party blocks the waters surrounding Taiwan, Minister of Economic Affairs Wang Mei-hua stated during a media inquiry at the Legislative Yuan that she could not disclose specific data, only hinting that it might involve confidential information. According to a report from the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan's oil safety stock is approximately 146 days, natural gas is only 10 to 11 days, and coal is 39 days. Research indicates that Taiwan has a high dependency on natural gas; in the event of a natural disaster or special circumstances, it may face gas shortages and power crises, especially since natural gas accounts for 50% of its power generation. If Taiwan is surrounded for 10 days, it will lead to power shortages, and further extending this for 40 days could result in a complete breakdown. In terms of nuclear energy, fuel is replaced every 18 months, allowing for about a year and a half of continuous operation.
Recently, the assumption regarding the Chinese Communist Party's blockade of the waters surrounding Taiwan has raised concerns among the business community and the public, particularly about how long Taiwan's economy and electricity consumption can be sustained. However, when faced with media inquiries in the Legislative Yuan, the Minister of Economic Affairs stated that it was "inconvenient to disclose" information. When asked if the related content was confidential, he simply responded, "It should be!" and did not wish to discuss further.
According to a report from the Legislative Yuan's Legal Affairs Bureau, the Ministry of Economic Affairs revealed on August 3, 2022, that Taiwan's oil security inventory is approximately 146 days, natural gas is 10 to 11 days, and coal can last about 39 days. Furthermore, 99% of Taiwan's natural gas generation relies on imports.
A researcher from National Central University pointed out that the turnover days of Taiwan's natural gas storage tanks are only 10 days, which is significantly lower than Japan's 36 days, South Korea's 53 days, and mainland China's 51 days. If a summer typhoon hits Taiwan for more than a week, gas power generation could come to a complete halt. As Taiwan is promoting energy transformation, the proportion of natural gas power generation is expected to reach 50% this year (2022), further increasing the risks associated with dependence on natural gas.
Moreover, the transportation time to the major natural gas supplier countries is quite long; for example, it takes about 6 days to reach Australia, 7 to 8.5 days to Papua New Guinea, and even 12 days to Qatar. In the event of a typhoon, monsoon, or geopolitical risks, Taiwan may face a crisis of "gas cut-off" and "power cut-off" at any time.
It is estimated that if Taiwan's major natural gas power generation facilities were to stop for 10 days under a containment situation, it would lead to a massive power shortage, primarily affecting industrial electricity usage. If the situation continues for 40 days, coal power generation would also be exhausted, greatly increasing the likelihood of a complete economic collapse. As for nuclear power generation, since nuclear fuel rods only need to be replaced every 18 months, nuclear power can also continue to supply electricity for "a year and a half."