讀後心得

Trump's announcement of a 32% tariff triggered a sharp decline in the US stock market, and Taiwan's stock market may face a significant drop on Monday. Analysts predict it could fall by a thousand points, and if TSMC hits the daily limit down, it may drop below 900 NT dollars, dragging the Taiwan stock index down by over 770 points. Premier Su Tseng-chang is holding a meeting with financial authorities to consider imposing short-selling restrictions. The New Taiwan Dollar is underperforming, as investors seek safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen, causing the Yen exchange rate to surpass 0.23, appreciating against the US Dollar. Analysts estimate that the Yen will continue to strengthen, and if the stock market crashes, the Yen could rise to 0.242. Market sentiment is anxious, and caution is needed in the short term.

The 32% tariff imposed by Trump has caused a market shock, with the US stock market experiencing severe declines for two consecutive days. It is expected that the Taiwan stock market will also face a similar predicament on Monday. Analysts warn that there could be a decline of at least a thousand points. If TSMC hits its price limit down, its stock price could drop from 900 TWD to 848 TWD, dragging the Taiwan stock market down by 770 points. In response, the Premier has convened a meeting with relevant financial institutions to consider implementing a short-selling ban. Besides the stock market, the exchange rate market remains sluggish, with investors buying large amounts of Japanese yen as a hedge. On the 4th, the cash exchange rate for the yen exceeded the key level of 0.23.

During the holiday period, Japan's chain stores were filled with crowds, with snacks, cosmetics, and daily necessities stuffed in shopping baskets. For example, this Godzilla toy is very appealing at a price of 499 TWD. However, with the rising yen exchange rate, the price of Japanese products purchased in Taiwan is expected to gradually increase in the future. According to the latest data, with the exchange rate of 0.23 for the yen at Bank of Taiwan on April 4, using 100,000 TWD for conversion would mean saving 53 bowls of Ichiran ramen compared to last July's low.

The reciprocal tariffs announced by Trump unexpectedly stimulated the weak yen, and the setback in the US stock market has led investors to purchase large amounts of yen, causing the yen to rise against the dollar, reaching 145.19 yen to 1 dollar within six months. The changes in the exchange rate market indicate that the weakest Asian currencies are being replaced. Analysts point out that if the stock market continues to worsen, the influx of funds into the yen could potentially elevate its value to 0.242. In future negotiations regarding the adjustment of the 32% tariff between the US and Taiwan, the appreciation of the TWD could be a disadvantage for us, hence the yen may continue to strengthen.

For the public, the past exchange rate before the pandemic was 0.27, which now appears slightly cheaper in comparison, leading them to consider exchanging again. However, due to the impact of the tariffs, the US market has already suffered significant losses, and the Taiwan stock market will also face tests on Monday. Many netizens are conducting simulations regarding TSMC, calculating that if its closing price is 942 TWD and it drops by the limit down of 10%, it would fall to 848 TWD. Based on TSMC's decline of 1 TWD, the overall weighted index would also drop by 8.2 points, potentially affecting the Taiwan stock market with a decline close to 770 points.

Analysts indicate that after Monday, there will be a correction phase, with a decline of at least a thousand points. There are no signs of TSMC stopping its decline in the short term, and future investor conferences will also become a focal point of market attention. In a declining stock market scenario, if daily trading volume exceeds 660 billion TWD, it indicates a significant turnover of shares, and the number of companies hitting the limit down during the session could reach as high as 300 to 400. Although excessive panic in the short term could lead to signals of a rebound, the market still requires cautious action.