讀後心得

After Trump announced a 32% tariff, the U.S. stock market fell for two consecutive days, and Taiwan's stock market is expected to be affected on Monday, with analysts predicting a decline that could reach a thousand points. If TSMC hits its limit down, it could plummet from NT$942 to NT$848, potentially dragging the index down by over 700 points. Executive Yuan Minister Chou Jung-tai has convened a meeting to consider implementing a short-selling ban. The Japanese yen has strengthened due to increased demand for safe-haven assets, temporarily breaking the 0.23 exchange rate, leading to higher costs for purchasing Japanese goods in the future. Analysts point out that if the stock market continues to decline, the yen may strengthen further, with expectations that the exchange rate could reach 0.242. The public has mixed reactions to changes in the exchange rate, but it is advised to invest cautiously in the context of an unstable market.

The 32% tariff imposed by Trump has led to a significant two-day decline in the US stock market, and experts predict that the Taiwanese stock market will also be affected by this on Monday, warning that there could be a potential decline of hundreds of points in the future. If TSMC hits the daily limit down, its stock price could drop from 900 TWD to 848 TWD, dragging the overall index down by 770 points. The Premier and relevant financial units held a meeting to consider whether to implement a short-selling ban.

In the currency market, the Taiwanese stock market remains sluggish. As investors buy large amounts of Japanese yen as a hedge, the exchange rate for cash yen briefly broke through the 0.23 barrier on the 4th.

Japanese chain supermarkets were crowded with customers during the holidays, with snacks, cosmetics, and other daily necessities filling shopping baskets. For example, one Godzilla figure had a price discount of 500 JPY. However, due to the continued appreciation of the yen, purchasing Japanese products in Taiwan will become even more expensive in the future. According to the Central Bank's exchange rate on April 4, if 100,000 TWD were exchanged for yen, compared to the low point in July of last year, consumers effectively lost the cost of 53 bowls of Ichiran ramen.

Trump's tariff policy has not only impacted the US stock market but has also stimulated the exchange rate of the yen. Investors are buying yen in large quantities to hedge, causing the yen to appreciate against the US dollar, briefly rising to 145.19. If the stock market fluctuates violently, funds may quickly flow into the yen, and analysts predict that the yen could reach an exchange rate of 0.242.

Citizens have stated that although the current exchange rate is slightly lower than the pre-pandemic level of 0.27, the situation for the Taiwanese stock market remains pessimistic under the impact of tariffs. Netizens are speculating about the future of the "national treasure," with predictions that if TSMC's closing price on the 2nd was 942 TWD, and it hits the limit down, a decline to 848 TWD would influence the weighted index by 8.2 points, potentially leading to a significant drop of 770 points in the overall market.

Analysts point out that after Monday, the market will face a correction, and the initial forecast suggests a potential decline of at least a thousand points. Currently, TSMC has not shown any short-term signs of stopping the decline, and the market will be watching the developments of the earnings conference on April 17.

As stock market volatility increases, if trading volume surpasses 660 billion TWD, it may trigger a turnover of market chips. If excessive panic occurs in the short term, there might be a chance for a rebound, but caution is still warranted at this time.