讀後心得

The Trump administration will implement new reciprocal tariffs on April 9, raising the tariff on imported cars and parts from 2.5% to 25%, effective April 3. These policies will impact the market, and experts predict that countries will retaliate in response. Tian Zhi observed that U.S. stocks have fluctuated and declined by about 10% amid uncertainty. Liu Jiahao from Standard Chartered Bank pointed out that the long-term fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong, but in the short term, due to tariff uncertainty, a neutral position is adopted. An economic recession could potentially lead to interest rate cuts, supporting the bond market. Investors should respond cautiously to future market risks.

The latest "reciprocal tariff" measures from the Trump administration will take effect at midnight on April 9, U.S. time, imposing new tariff rates on products imported into the U.S. from various trading nations. Additionally, tariffs on imported cars and parts will also be raised from 2.5% to 25%, effective April 3. As political decisions change, the market immediately felt the impact, with the volatility of the risk index VIX reflecting this sharply. Economists and financial experts generally believe that international retaliation will follow, as countries are ready to open fire in this tariff war!

In a program that premiered on April 5 (Saturday) at 7 PM, a guest noted that investors should pay particular attention to the imminent "Trump recession." It is evident that with the increase in tariffs, the stock market has not reflected the digesting of negative news, but rather has fallen steadily. The uncertainty of U.S. policy has become the catalyst for the significant volatility in the stock market during this first quarter. Looking back at the financial market situation in the first quarter, U.S. stocks fell about 10% from peak to trough, significantly underperforming other major regions. Signs of growth panic and stagflation in the U.S. economy confirm the impact of the details of the reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2.

The Trump administration's tariffs on imports to the U.S. are divided into two lines: one is indiscriminate tariffs against trade rival countries, and the other targets specific industries and products, with the automotive industry becoming the first to face tariff increases. According to official data, the 25% automobile tariff set by the Trump administration takes effect at 12:01 AM Eastern Time on April 3 and will apply to nearly $600 billion in auto parts and computer products, with the U.S. set to determine the specific procedures for imposing tariffs on parts within 90 days.

As for the tariff rates against individual countries, they are calculated based on data provided by U.S. trade-related departments using simple logical calculations. The formula for calculating the reciprocal tariff rate is: Reciprocal Tariff Rate = Trade deficit amount of that country against the U.S. in 2024 ÷ Import amount from the U.S. by that country in 2024, determining reciprocal tariff ranges from 0% to 99%. The reciprocal tariffs imposed on different countries vary, and the relevant calculation formulas have been published on the official website.

Experts point out that the S&P 500 index has outperformed global stocks over a relatively long period. Over the past two years, the excellent performance of U.S. stocks, especially technology stocks, has attracted a significant amount of market capital. Now with the implementation of tariff measures and concerns about economic recession, will the market face new risks? What impact will this have on investors?

Regarding ongoing uncertainties, experts maintain a neutral stance on the U.S. stock market in the short term. However, the underlying strength of the U.S. economy remains, including continuously profitable U.S. companies and their leading position in innovation and technology, leading international institutional investors to remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of U.S. assets. Based on past experience, once the U.S. economy experiences an independent recession, stock market performance typically lags behind that of other global markets. Experts believe that if this is the case, the Federal Reserve will respond by lowering interest rates to support U.S. government bonds. Therefore, the Fed revealed relevant data at the March meeting to pave the way for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year.

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