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2025-04-21

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Can Zhuo Rongtai's "88 billion subsidies" withstand Trump's 34% tariff? Xie Jinhe calls on the government to consider an important issue: this storm may not be as optimistic as expected.

Can Zhuo Rongtai's
讀後心得
Only two main competitors remain on the world stage! Trump has implemented high tariffs, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warns that those who retaliate will face higher taxes. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru helplessly responds that Japan is the country with the most investment in the United States, yet feels wronged. Although Taiwan's subsidy plan has been proposed, it fails to address the core issue. Taiwan should clearly improve measures against tariff barriers to the U.S. and promote plans to expand trade deficits and negotiate with the U.S. The focus of this tariff war lies between the U.S. and China; most other countries can only follow. Trump levies a 34% tariff on China, and China swiftly retaliates with the same rate on the U.S. Looking back at China's economic changes, the confrontation between China and the U.S. has gradually escalated since the reform and opening up. Trump's tariff measures not only affect China but also have implications for Asian and African countries closely connected to China. Under the current situation, Taiwan's industry finds it difficult to benefit from low tariffs and continues to face persistent challenges.

The world is left with only a confrontation between two people! Trump swings the tariff sword, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin threatens: the retaliators will only face a higher tax burden! Even Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba can only express that Japan has always been the country with the most investment in the United States, feeling very dissatisfied with the tax pressure Japan is experiencing. From Taiwan's side, the cabinet team led by Premier Su Tseng-chang has proposed an 88 billion subsidy plan, but it seems to have not addressed the core issues. Perhaps Taiwan should clarify which industries are facing high tariff barriers from the United States and propose specific improvement measures. In addition, it is necessary to balance the expansion of trade deficits and initiate procurement negotiations with the U.S.! In fact, this tariff war has only two main participants; the rest are mere accomplices and can even negotiate, such as Canada and Mexico, who often wave the stick and then immediately drop it. Trump's tariff policy imposes a 34% tariff on China, and the next day China immediately responded with the same 34% tariff on U.S. goods, with brands like APPLE and Nike, which have a huge market share in China, being the most affected. China has already retaliated strongly; how will Trump respond next? This move will become the focus of global attention in the future.

Looking back at China's economy, in 1985 it ranked ninth in the world, with a scale of only 306.6 billion USD. With Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening up, by 1990 China gradually became the world's factory. Statistics show that from 1974 to 1990, China achieved a surplus for only 5 years and had a deficit for 12 years. However, after 1990, China experienced a deficit in 1993, until it joined the WTO in 2001, and the surplus first exceeded 100 billion USD in 2005. Subsequently, China became the world's largest exporter and the second-largest economy globally; since 2017, China has begun to challenge the United States, and this time Trump's tariff policy is clearly aimed at China. Trump's measures also affect highly dependent Asian countries like Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, as well as African countries such as South Africa, Lesotho, Madagascar, and Botswana, which are all suffering from heavy taxes. Trump has almost encompassed all countries related to China, but China is no longer the weak country of 1985. In the face of Trump's hardline policies, China also possesses the ability to "fight back with a tooth for a tooth."

Currently, Taiwan's industries are under the bullying of China and can hardly enjoy the benefits of low tariffs; they are forced to adapt to environmental changes, and it has become apparent that no matter where factories are set up, it is impossible to escape the impact of tariffs! The storm is still spreading, and the epicenter has not yet calmed down!