讀後心得

Trump's tariff policy has affected the US stock market, leading to a shift in economic expectations towards recession. JPMorgan forecasts that due to the impact of tariffs, the US GDP will turn from positive growth to negative growth, dropping to -0.3%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.3%. As a result, the S&P 500 index plummeted in just two days, with a market value evaporation of $5.4 trillion, entering a bear market. Investors need to be aware of the risks of stagflation; the Federal Reserve may accelerate interest rate cuts, with the benchmark rate projected to drop from 4.25%-4.5% to 2.75%-3%.

Trump's tariff policy has impacted global markets, with the U.S. stock market entering a bear market and foreign investors significantly lowering their expectations for U.S. economic growth. JPMorgan's latest forecast indicates that due to Trump's global tariff policy, the U.S. may face an economic recession this year. Investors need to be aware of the risks of stagflation, and the Federal Reserve may need to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts.

JPMorgan noted in a report on Friday that due to the implementation of Trump's global tariffs, the forecast for U.S. GDP growth for the year is expected to shift from positive to negative, dropping from the previously estimated 1.3% to -0.3%. At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.3%.

After the announcement of Trump’s tariff policy, the U.S. stock market experienced a sharp decline in just two days, with the S&P 500 index falling to its lowest point in 11 months. In merely two trading days, the market value evaporated by $5.4 trillion, officially entering a bear market. The investment community is worried that the risks of economic stagnation and stagflation may soon become a reality.

JPMorgan expects that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in June of this year and will continue to lower rates at future meetings, ultimately adjusting the benchmark rate from the current range of 4.25%-4.5% to a range of 2.75%-3%.

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