Image reproduced from 中視新聞

As tensions escalate between Iran and Israel, Iran has issued nuclear warnings through state media, raising international concerns. Ming Ju-Cheng, Emeritus Professor of Political Science at National Taiwan University, expressed on the program 'After Work Chat' that surrounding Sunni nations view any attacks on Iran favorably and analyzed the current global strategies of the CCP and Russia, suggesting that Israel and the United States' plans are succeeding in the context of the Iran-Israel conflict.

Ming pointed out several factors contributing to decades of turmoil in the Middle East: first, the sectarian differences within Islam; second, complex ethnic relations; third, territorial disputes that are not naturally delineated but instead stem from imperialist interventions in the 18th and 19th centuries; fourth, water disputes among countries; fifth, oil, where oil-rich nations often lack water resources, and vice versa; and sixth, interference from imperialism. The events of October 7, 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel, illustrate the drastic changes in the region. While Hamas lacks the strength to match Israel, the surrounding countries are largely against Hamas due to its control over the Gaza Strip, presenting an opportunity for the Palestinian Authority to regain territory.

Ming mentioned that Hamas's actions might be intended to sabotage any potential peace talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia, particularly given that Saudi Arabia was preparing to normalize relations with Israel. Egypt, also not sympathetic to Hamas, is unlikely to intervene. In light of these conditions, the surrounding nations are largely uninterested in aiding Hamas in its conflict with Israel. Instead, many regional actors desire for Israel to eradicate Hamas altogether, thus diminishing Iran's influence in the region and reducing the likelihood of a larger-scale war.

Regarding the US, Ming stated that its primary goal is to seek the 'surrender' of Iran. Should this effort fail, they may consider direct involvement in the conflict. He elaborated on Israel's attacks on Iran's political elite while indicating restraint towards the Iranian Army, suggesting that Israel may look to support the Iranian military as a counter to the Revolutionary Guards.

He also noted Pakistan's potential response should Israel utilize nuclear weapons against Iran, warning that Pakistan might retaliate with nuclear force. This highlights Pakistan's unique position as the only Muslim nation possessing nuclear capabilities, and its desire for a shift in the Iranian regime, but not necessarily for total destruction. Meanwhile, the UK has deployed an aircraft carrier in support of the US and Israel, while Russia expresses interest in aiding Iran but lacks the capacity to do so effectively. Instead, Russia opts for a diplomatic approach due to its fears over potential American and Israeli escalations.

China, historically Iran's largest ally, is currently offering more covert support, supplying materials, and aiding in the evacuation of Iranian officials. Ming emphasized that Iran’s nuclear threats are primarily aimed at negotiating a favorable position against Israel and the US, which raises questions about whether those powers will accept negotiations or opt to eliminate Iran's militant factions. The potential for regime change in Iran exists, as there could be resurgent movements toward secularization and Westernization if the Iranian regime shifts.