讀後心得

The investment trust institution pointed out that after the consecutive holidays, the Taiwanese stock market will face four major concerns, including Trump's increased tariffs. Although the stock market has mostly risen in the ten years following the Qingming holiday, this year may see selling pressure due to changes in U.S. tariff policies. Trump has imposed a 10% baseline tariff, and the 32% tariff on Taiwan does not exempt semiconductors, impacting electronic products exported to the United States. Qunyi Investment Trust suggests gradually investing in Taiwanese stock funds when the market pulls back. The manager of the Cathay Sustainable High Dividend Fund stated that Taiwan's investments in the United States have been increasing year by year, which could become a key point in negotiations. In the long term, industries related to AI and robotics still show potential, and investors should adopt a diversified strategy to cope with market volatility.

Investment trusts indicate that after the long holiday, the Taiwanese stock market needs to focus on four major aspects, with the central idea being to cope with the challenge of Trump's tariff increases. Regarding Trump's tariff policy, the baseline tax rate is 10%, while Taiwan faces a tax rate of 32%, and semiconductor products are not exempted. As the Qingming Festival holiday ends, the international market's plunge may trigger selling pressure, although statistics from the past decade show a 90% probability of an upward trend within five days after the Qingming holiday, and an average increase of about 0.53% and 3.43% in the following month and three months respectively. However, the panic selling pressure in the market may challenge the confidence barrier of 20,000 points, putting pressure on the 19,500-point support level.

Investment trusts emphasize that the market situation after the holiday requires special attention to four aspects: 1) U.S. stock performance, 2) response to Trump's tariffs, 3) whether major stocks in Taiwan can stop falling, and 4) the speed of margin reduction. Although historical data shows that the impact of the Qingming Festival on the Taiwanese stock market is limited, this year introduces variables due to Trump's tariff policy, and it is expected that the Taiwanese stock market will inevitably be influenced by the international market after the holiday. The stock research team at Yuanta Investment Trust indicates that the Taiwanese stock market performance after the Qingming Festival has a tendency towards positive returns over the past decade. Despite the impacts of U.S. tariff policies this year, well-selected stocks can flexibly adjust holdings after incidents occur, and it is suggested that investors can gradually position themselves in related funds during short-term pullbacks in the Taiwanese stock market.

Regarding the latest U.S. tariff policy, Yuanta Investment Trust believes that the impact on Taiwanese companies in the short term will be sequenced as follows: 1) companies with a complete supply chain in the U.S., 2) companies with partial supply chains, 3) companies producing in relatively low-tax countries (such as Singapore, Japan, India, South Korea, Israel, and the Philippines), 4) companies producing in Taiwan (facing a 32% tariff), and 5) companies producing in relatively high-tax countries (such as China, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia). Additionally, semiconductor products currently enjoy exemptions, but special tariffs' impacts still need attention. Taiwan's main export products to the U.S. are semiconductors and electronic products, making electronics exported to the U.S. the most directly affected, while the impact on companies operating factories in the U.S. will be relatively reduced.

Nomura Investment Trust indicates that if the tariff issue can be resolved in the future, the U.S. economy will still have fundamental support and will not fall into recession. Key market observation points include: 1) whether the U.S. stock market can stop falling, 2) Trump's reciprocal tariffs and their impact, 3) whether major stocks like TSMC, MediaTek, Foxconn, CTBC Financial, and Fubon Financial can stabilize after falling, and 4) the speed of margin reduction.

The manager of Cathay Sustainable High Dividend Fund mentioned that Taiwan's investment in the U.S. has continued to increase in recent years, rising from $1 billion in 2022 to $9 billion in 2023, with an expected increase to $14 billion by 2024. This year, TSMC plans to increase its investment by $100 billion, intending to leverage repatriation and direct investment to support high-tech and non-tech industries, which will be an important tool in negotiating tariffs with the U.S.

As the Taiwanese stock market continues to correct, there are still doubts about whether it has reached the bottom. Managers analyze that as of April 1, the price-to-earnings ratio of the Taiwan Weighted Index is 18.5, close to the five-year average of 18.3, indicating that the market is still within a reasonable valuation range and has investment potential. However, due to global market turbulence since the Trump administration, the index still faces volatility risks, and investors need to act with caution.

The proposed manager of the Unified Taiwan Stock Growth Active ETF points out that the Taiwanese stock market has grown for a long time over the past two years, and the proportion of foreign investment has reached historical highs, which may lead to a risk-averse profit-taking scenario. Future trends need to focus on two key indicators: the level of foreign short positions and whether margin financing continues to decrease. Considering the variables of Trump's policies, it is predicted that the second quarter will experience a larger range of fluctuations. Once the specific details of the tariff policy are established, industries that benefit from and are impacted by the situation can be assessed, adopting a "seizing the favorable and avoiding the unfavorable" stock selection strategy, patiently awaiting the resolution of negative factors, which may lead the market back to fundamentals.

In the long term, the rapid development of AI technology and the trend towards edge applications remain unchanged, with a focus on stocks related to AI, edge AI, and robots, particularly optimistic about Nvidia's new GB300 specification supply chain, ASIC technology, and Tesla's humanoid robot concept stocks. Due to the turbulent market environment, it is recommended that investors adopt a diversified allocation strategy.