讀後心得

Taiwan's stock market faces significant selling pressure due to the U.S. raising tariffs and China's countermeasures, with expectations that it will fall below the 20,000-point mark in search of support. The selling pressure from domestic and foreign investors could reach hundreds of billions of NT dollars, and with TSMC's ADRs continuously declining, market expectations for a stabilization of the Taiwan stock market have decreased. After a preliminary assessment of the impact of tariffs on Taiwanese products, it is expected that even if high tariffs lead to price increases in the U.S. market, Taiwanese manufacturers may increase shipments to other regions to compensate for losses in the U.S. market. Analysts believe that the short-term panic in the market has been sufficiently reflected, but the outlook for corporate profit growth remains optimistic in the medium to long term. Fubon Investment Consulting has proposed three major scenario forecasts, including possible progress in trade negotiations or aggressive countermeasures from various countries, which may influence the direction of the stock market.

The image is a diagram of the Taiwan stock market.

The United States' tariff policies have had a severe impact on global markets, particularly as the U.S.-China trade war escalates, dragging down the performance of U.S. stocks. Taiwan's stock market faced continued downward pressure on the 7th, with anticipated selling waves from domestic and foreign investors likely to create over NT$100 billion in selling pressure. The index may fall below the psychological barrier of 20,000 points, seeking support at the 2024 low of 19,662 points, with a retracement rate approaching 20%.

During the Qingming holiday, the negative impact of reciprocal tariffs continued to affect the market. Canada has announced a 25% tariff on American cars, while China has imposed a 34% import tariff on U.S. goods, exacerbating the overall trade tension. Recently, U.S. stocks have plummeted, with TSMC’s ADR falling more than 14% in just two trading days, causing the market's expectations for a rebound in Taiwan stocks to be dashed, with the opening on the 7th expected to face a "Black Monday."

As the demand for margin calls in financing and futures increases, the pressure of forced liquidations gradually emerges, and the continuous accumulation of selling pressure could trigger algorithmic hedging trades. The net selling scale of the three major institutional investors is expected to exceed NT$100 billion, potentially surpassing the single-day net selling record of September 4, 2024. Regarding the impact of tariffs, experts point out that following Trump’s reciprocal tariff standards, Taiwan's exported goods to the U.S. will face a 32% tariff, which will particularly affect large brands like Apple. Although most listed companies are OEMs, the actual impact may be less than expected under cost-cutting conditions.

The pass-through and price increase effects of high tariffs will mainly influence the U.S. market, with relatively limited impact on product prices in other regions. Therefore, sales in other markets may increase, helping Taiwanese manufacturers make up for the drop in exports to the U.S. In the short term, the market's panic mood may be fully reflected. After valuation adjustments, there is still hope for a return to the theme of continuous profit growth for Taiwanese enterprises in the medium to long term.

Investment experts analyze that Trump's tariff policy has the most significant impact on American brands and consumers. High tariffs will drive local product prices up, potentially weakening consumer purchasing power, leading them to seek better value products from other countries, which would be detrimental to the development of the U.S. economy, especially considering that the service industry accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy. Currently, there are increasing voices advocating against "mutually imposed tariffs," and the pressure to impose high tariffs continues to rise.

Forecasts from investment consultants indicate that, in the face of the significant drop in international stock markets, Taiwan stocks will experience downward pressure in the short term. However, Trump's tariff policy is still aimed at reviving U.S. manufacturing, and the progress of negotiations between countries will become the main focus of the market. Regarding possible future scenarios, investment consultants propose three possibilities:

• Optimistic scenario: Significant room for negotiation; the counterpart does not retaliate strongly; the tariff war cools down; the stock market rebounds after fluctuations; the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by two basis points; U.S. bond yields return to normal ranges.
• Basic scenario: Some room for negotiation remains, but certain countries will retaliate; continued uncertainty may drag on for 1-2 quarters; the stock market may fluctuate as a result; the Federal Reserve has room to cut interest rates by 2-3 basis points; U.S. bond yields may dip in the short term.
• Worst-case scenario: Almost no room for negotiation; most countries retaliate strongly, leading to a global economic slowdown; U.S. stocks may test the lows; the Federal Reserve could abandon efforts to stabilize inflation and implement significant interest rate cuts, leading to a sharp drop in short-term rates and significant changes in the yield curve.

More reports include issues such as the enthusiasm for overseas trading, the record of NT$4 trillion in entrusted trading in the first 11 months, and forecasts for the renminbi.