讀後心得

The Taiwan stock market has recently suffered a heavy blow from the US Trump tariff policy, along with China imposing tariffs as high as 34% on American goods, causing the trade war to escalate. This has led to consecutive declines in the US stock market, and the Taiwan market is also under pressure to compensate for losses, with expectations that both domestic and foreign investors will significantly sell off, possibly surpassing NT$100 billion in net selling. After entering the Qingming holiday, the impact of the trade war continues, intensifying the market's expectations for a continued decline in the Taiwan stock market, especially as TSMC's ADR has cumulatively dropped more than 14% recently. Investment advisory institutions state that although short-term market panic is strong, they remain optimistic about the profit growth of Taiwanese companies in the long term. Regarding the impact of tariffs, analysis suggests that products exported from Taiwan to the US may be subject to a 32% tax rate. While this could lead to price increases, it may also positively affect overall sales, providing companies with opportunities to increase shipments to other regions. There is a rising outcry from various parties against the high tariff policies of the US, which could affect economic development, and the market will continue to monitor the progress of relevant negotiations.

The image shows a representation of the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The United States' tariff policy has severely impacted the global market. Coupled with China's 34% tariffs on the U.S., the trade war is escalating, leading to a significant decline in the U.S. stock market. The Taiwan stock market is facing ongoing pressure to catch up on losses as of the 7th, with expectations of a full-blown selling pressure from both domestic and foreign investors, potentially exceeding NT$100 billion. The index may fall below the 20,000-point mark, seeking support around the 2024 low of 19,662, indicating a nearly 20% drop from previous highs, reflecting a "bear market trend."

The Taiwan stock market has been turbulent during the Qingming Festival holiday, with the adverse effects of retaliatory tariffs continuously impacting international markets. In addition to Canada announcing a 25% tariff on U.S. cars, China has also imposed a 34% import tariff on the U.S., leading to escalating trade frictions and further declines in the U.S. stock market. TSMC's ADR has seen a cumulative drop of over 14% in the past two trading days, dampening expectations for stabilization in the Taiwan stock market during the closure, which is anticipated to greet "Black Monday" upon opening on the 7th.

With margin adjustments and futures contracts aiming to bolster guarantees, the pressure from forced liquidations is also increasing. The backlog of selling from domestic and foreign investors could potentially trigger hedging behaviors in algorithmic trading, with expectations that the scale of selling by the three major institutional investors will exceed NT$100 billion. There is a possibility of surpassing the previous single-day selling record of NT$123.242 billion on September 4, 2024. Regarding the impact of tariffs, the financial sector believes that based on the reciprocal tariffs announced by Trump, Taiwanese goods exported to the U.S. will incur a 32% tariff. This will significantly affect brands like Apple, and since 80% of publicly listed companies are contract manufacturers, the actual impact may not be as severe as expected despite some price reductions.

The effects of high tariffs, including cost transfer and price increases, will primarily concentrate in the United States, with minimal price adjustments in other regions. This could potentially increase sales volumes, allowing Taiwanese manufacturers to boost shipments to other areas to compensate for reduced exports to the U.S. The market's short-term panic has likely been fully reflected, and after significant corrections, it is expected to return to the theme of the continued growth profits of Taiwanese enterprises in the medium to long term.

Analysis indicates that Trump's high tariff policy is mainly aimed at stimulating the U.S. manufacturing sector, while the overall negotiation progress with various countries has become a focal point for the market. Based on this, three possible market scenarios are proposed. The first optimistic scenario is that "there is considerable room for negotiations, and the punished countries do not take significant retaliatory actions, leading to a de-escalation of the trade war," with the stock market expected to rebound after fluctuations, while the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice this year, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returns to normal ranges. The second scenario is the baseline scenario, "negotiation space still exists, and some countries will retaliate, but the period of uncertainty will be prolonged," with the stock market expected to fluctuate for 1 to 2 quarters, and the Federal Reserve may cut rates 2 to 3 times, leading to a further short-term decrease in bond yields. The worst-case scenario involves "almost no negotiation space, with most countries retaliating fiercely, resulting in a weak global economy," which could cause the U.S. stock market to experience a downturn, prompting the Federal Reserve to abandon its goal of stabilizing inflation and significantly cut interest rates, with short-term interest rates dropping markedly and the yield curve becoming steeper.