Stock Market Almanac: Strong Bearish Pressure, Short-Term Trading is the Best Strategy
- byVic

讀後心得
Last week, the Taiwan stock market fell by 304 points, closing with a long lower shadow of 550 points, a drop of 1.41%. Due to the Qingming Festival holiday, there were only three trading days last week. The market remains concerned that Trump’s tariff policy may have negative impacts. Although market sentiment is tense, the long lower shadow indicates that the situation is not as pessimistic as expected. Entering the second week of April, the omens show that the bears have gained a temporal advantage, which may release goodwill. The investment omens for April indicate that the decline can be viewed as bullish and suggest short-term operations. This week’s omens indicate difficulties in execution, with the bear momentum clearly evident; although unfavorable, there is still a chance for short-term opportunities, necessitating cautious operations.
Last week, the Taiwan stock market closed down 304 points on a weekly basis, but left a long lower shadow of 550 points, with a decline of 1.41%. Due to the long holiday for the Qingming Festival, there were only three trading days last week. The market remains concerned about the significant negative impact brought by Trump's tariff policy. Although the market is cautious about Trump's actions and has been waiting due to the Qingming long holiday, the market still exhibited a long lower shadow. This phenomenon is closely related to last week's hexagram <天水訟>, which suggests that the market is not as pessimistic as imagined, and the long lower shadow is the best interpretation of the message.
As we enter the second week of April, the lunar March after the Qingming Festival has started, and the season falls within the realm of "Geng-Chen Month," which is a period dominated by the bearish side in terms of yearly hexagrams. Observing from the perspective of the hexagram <地山謙>, the bearish side has gained momentum in terms of timing, with frequent actions, and the arrangement of energy in the hexagram suggests that the bearish side may release a message of goodwill. However, the movements of the bullish side in the hexagram are not coordinated, so investors still need to act cautiously to seek fortune and avoid misfortune.
This month's investment fortune hexagram is <兌為澤>, which indicates a divergence of market opinions. Overall, the downward trend may be a temporary benefit, and a sharp decline could become a buying opportunity for short-term gains. The hexagram for this week is <火雷噬嗑>, which indicates facing difficulties that need to be overcome. The arrangement of energy in the hexagram is not ideal, making it an unfavorable hexagram for executing affairs.
In the structure of bullish and bearish patterns within the hexagram, the bearish momentum is quite evident and frequently active, thus the market will obviously be affected by negative factors this week. However, it is fortunate that after the Qingming Festival, bullish momentum has begun to significantly strengthen. Even if this week may not completely enter a "full stop of bad news" state, there is still hope for a short-term turnaround. It is important to remind that any optimistic holding actions should be viewed as sensitive operations in the short term, and a "hit-and-run" strategy will become the ideal approach.
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