讀後心得

Trump's tariff policy has triggered significant market turbulence, with the U.S. stock market experiencing sharp declines last week. As the earnings season for U.S. companies approaches, bank stocks are the first to report their results, and investors are focusing on inflation indicators such as CPI and PPI trends. Before the implementation of Trump's reciprocal tariffs, the market is likely to remain volatile. Analysts are cautious about the economic outlook, raising the probability of a recession from 40% to 60%. Major companies such as JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley are set to release their first-quarter earnings this week, with an expected year-on-year earnings growth of 7.8%. Ongoing inflationary pressures, coupled with the impact of tariffs, will pose challenges for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.

Trump's equal tariff policy has triggered market turbulence, with the U.S. stock market suffering heavy losses last week. Looking ahead to this week, in addition to the ongoing tariff issues that may continue to develop, the earnings season for U.S. companies is also about to begin, with bank stocks leading the way. Moreover, inflation indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) will also become market focal points. Trump's tariff measures have had a significant impact on global asset prices, and investors will be looking for clues about a market bottom. However, market volatility may intensify before the implementation of Trump's tariff policy on April 9.

The head of multi-asset solutions pointed out that "the market trends are filled with uncertainty and are hard to grasp. There is no clear end or direction regarding tariffs and retaliatory tariffs." Another investment strategy expert emphasized that "the market could become its own biggest enemy, as such a downturn will affect confidence and further weaken economic activity." As investors adjust their forecasts for economic and corporate earnings downward, JPMorgan analysts have raised the probability of a global economic recession from 40% to 60%.

This week marks the beginning of the earnings season for U.S. companies, with several Wall Street giants, including JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock, set to announce their results on the 11th. According to data, U.S. companies are expected to see an average annual increase of 7.8% in earnings for the first quarter of this year. A report by RBC Capital Markets strategists indicates that the current profit outlook is filled with uncertainty, leading them to downgrade the earnings forecasts for S&P 500 constituents.

In terms of economic data, the inflation indicators CPI and PPI for March are expected to be released on the 10th and 11th, respectively, which will be closely watched by the market. Financial media hosts pointed out that inflationary pressures in the U.S. still exist, and Trump's tariff policy could further drive up prices, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to make rate decisions in May.

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• The environmental impact assessment case for the Hsinchu Science Park's Gongliao area has been approved.