讀後心得

Trump's reciprocal tariff measures have triggered a significant decline in the U.S. stock market, leading to increased market volatility. As the earnings season approaches, bank stocks will be the first to report their performance, while investors are also paying attention to the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) inflation data. Experts warn that market uncertainty may affect economic confidence, and JPMorgan has raised its forecast for the likelihood of a global economic recession from 40% to 60%. This week, American companies will gradually release their first-quarter results, with an estimated annual growth rate of 7.8%. Meanwhile, CPI and PPI data will be published on the 10th and 11th, which could become the market's focal point. The ongoing inflation and Trump's tariff policies will challenge the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.

Trump's tough measures regarding tariffs have triggered a fierce reaction from the market, with U.S. stocks experiencing a severe decline last week. Looking ahead to this week, in addition to the ongoing tariff issues, the earnings season for U.S. companies is about to begin, with bank stocks releasing their results first. Additionally, inflation data such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) will also become the focus of the market. As Trump's tariff policies wreak havoc on global asset prices, investors will be looking for signs that the stock market is nearing a bottom. However, before Trump's tariff measures take effect on April 9, the market may experience even more intense volatility.

The head of multi-asset solutions at Cohen & Steers pointed out that the uncertainty in market trends makes it difficult to make judgments, with the issue revolving around tariffs and their retaliatory measures, leaving unclear how far the situation will develop before it can be fully resolved. The co-Chief Investment Strategist at John Hancock Investment Management stated that the market may become investors' worst enemy, with such declines potentially damaging investors' confidence and, in turn, affecting economic activity.

Investors are lowering their forecasts for the economy and corporate profits, with JPMorgan analysts raising the probability of a global economic recession from 40% to 60%. The earnings season for U.S. companies is set to start this week, with JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock all releasing their results on the 11th. According to data from LSEG IBES, U.S. companies are expected to see an average earnings growth of 7.8% in the first quarter of this year. Strategists at RBC Capital Markets noted in their report on the 4th that the current profit outlook is fraught with uncertainty, and they have downgraded their earnings predictions for S&P 500 companies.

In terms of economic data, CPI and PPI for March will be released on the 10th and 11th, respectively, and these figures are expected to become a focal point for the market. Observers in the financial media have pointed out that U.S. inflation remains persistent, and coupled with Trump's tariff policies, which could further elevate prices, this will pose challenges for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in May.

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